Whereas the Bitcoin halving isn’t anticipated till March 13, 2024, in response to Coinwarz knowledge, Litecoin buyers can already look ahead to the historically bullish occasion as quickly as this yr. In line with NiceHash’s estimate, the Litecoin halving will happen in 189 days, on July 19, 2023.
The approaching halving has prompted analyst Rekt Capital to look at Litecoin’s historic worth traits earlier than and after the halving as a way to present a prediction for the approaching months.
285% Litecoin Rally In The Playing cards?
Rekt Capital notes that LTC tends to rally quite a bit earlier than halving. Earlier than halving 1, the value bottomed in 122 days and rose +820% afterward. Earlier than halving 2, LTC bottomed in 243 days and rallied by 550%.
After each halvings, nevertheless, the value positive factors had been even stronger. Because the chart under from Rekt Capital reveals, Litecoin is up +14,200% after the primary halving, and after the second halving, it was “nonetheless” 1,574%. From this, the analyst derives the historic tendency that LTC tends to rally stronger after the halving than earlier than.
Nevertheless, this doesn’t imply that investing earlier than the halving isn’t traditionally profitable in the event you discover the suitable time to put a promote order. In line with the analyst, it may be seen from historic knowledge that LTC sees a robust rally previous to the halving earlier than the value drops sharply instantly.
The Litecoin worth declined by -73% within the first 578 days after halving. The second halving led the value to drop as a lot as -83% earlier than it discovered its backside after 458 days. “For that cause it’s essential to grasp when an LTC pre-halving rally tends to prime,” the analyst says.
Because the chart under reveals, LTC peaked 31 days earlier than the occasion the primary time and 61 days earlier than the second event. Supplied this pattern continues, the LTC rally might cease as early as 92 days pre-halving – which might be in Could 2023, in response to Rekt Capital.
Nevertheless, the rally might additionally finish as early as April if the times double. It’s subsequently additionally fascinating to scrutinize how lengthy the rallies lasted by way of time. The primary LTC pre-halving rally lasted for simply 90 days, whereas the second offered a very good 180 days of pleasure amongst buyers. Due to this fact, the analyst concludes:
It appears like $LTC pre-halving rallies could also be lengthening in time. If this upcoming LTC Pre-Halving rally lasts twice so long as the earlier PH rally, then this rally will final ~twelve months. Which finds confluence with a Could 2023 prime.
By way of how a lot the LTC worth might rise within the months main as much as halving, the analyst believes that the rally might propel the value as excessive as 285% from its backside. Such a rally would imply that LTC has already captured sure pre-halving positive factors and will push as much as the $115 zone.
That is additionally the purpose the place the pre-halving 2019 rally peaked. LTC additionally briefly held help at this degree after its 2021 bull market excessive to type the macro downtrend.
What Occurs After The Halving?
Put up-halving, LTC might face a robust retracement primarily based on historic traits earlier than an accumulation section begins. The lows in each instances had been increased lows in comparison with the pre-halving low. This might imply that LTC will fall between 72% and 77%.
The hot button is to “look ahead to deep post-halving retrace adopted by lengthy consolidation in an approx 70%-wide vary,” the analyst defined. The breakout from the buildup section might happen after a minimum of 400 days post-halving in July 2023, in response to the (nonetheless quick) historical past. In conclusion, Rekt Capital says:
This could coincide with a July 2024 LTC breakout. This could make sense as this #LTC breakout would happen after the 2024 Bitcoin Halving: It could additionally tie in with BTC’s normal pattern reversal which happens in a typical Candle 4 within the 4 yr cycle.
At press time, the LTC worth was up 1.5% within the final 24 hours, buying and selling at $82.43.
Featured picture from Michael Fortsch / Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com
