Market Outlook #245 (thirteenth November 2023)
Whats up, and welcome to the 245th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I will likely be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Chainlink, Polkadot, ImmutableX, Perpetual Protocol, DIA, Saito and Cellframe.
As ever, in case you have any requests for subsequent week, let me know.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $36,982
Market Cap: $721.671bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD on the weekly chart, we are able to see that value rallied once more final week off the weekly open, on larger quantity than the earlier week, pushing by way of the 38.2% fib retracement of the bear market at $36k into $37.1k, poking marginally above that however closing on the degree. We see no indicators nonetheless of momentum exhaustion on this timeframe, and given the shut I’m leaning in the direction of continuation of this squeeze larger to fill in the remainder of the hole into $39.6k this week. There may be, after all, additionally the chance that a number of ETFs are accredited this week (although a slim probability), and in that case it’s seemingly we push all the way in which into the 50% fib retracement and reclaimed resistance at $42k. Both manner, there’s nothing on the weekly timeframe that implies a longer-term prime is in, and if we do dip early this week I’d count on it to be shallow.
Nevertheless, if we drop into the each day, I’ve marked out two doable trajectories I’m contemplating from right here. The primary is as above: we get a shallow pull-back in the direction of resistance from final week at $36k, discover help and proceed larger into the resistance ranges between $39.6k and $42k; the second trajectory is that if this divergence in momentum is validated and we shut again inside $35.2k and switch it into resistance, the place I’d then count on the remainder of the lows of that week to be swept into $32.9k and value to then mark out a backside round there. Thrilling instances forward, regardless.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $2110.58 (0.0571 BTC)
Market Cap: $254.658bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair rallied arduous final week, turning trendline resistance into help on the weekly open after which pushing into resistance at $2037, wicking above that simply shy of the yearly excessive however closing again marginally above $2037. If this degree now turns help, I’d count on ETH to begin taking part in catch up, with contemporary yearly highs above $2172 lastly opening up the transfer into the 38.2% fib retracement at $2425, which I’ve had marked out for a good whereas. That’s the extent I count on the pair to squeeze into over the subsequent couple of weeks if we are able to now maintain above $2037. If we shut the weekly again beneath $2037, I’d count on a bit extra of a pull-back in the direction of $1850 to mark out a higher-low earlier than one other run at yearly highs. Dropping into the each day, we are able to see that not like BTC there isn’t a momentum divergence right here, and on this timeframe the pair is discovering help at $2037 early this week, pushing off that degree again in the direction of final week’s excessive. Shut the each day above $2172 and there’s fairly actually no resistance for an additional $250 transfer…
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that value depraved into 0.051 final week and located sturdy help, bouncing off that degree all the way in which into prior help turned resistance at 0.0577 earlier than rejecting and shutting the week marginally beneath the 200wMA and the Might 2021 lows at 0.0551. Nonetheless, that was fairly the present of power from bulls off that low and if we see continuation larger this week and value closes above the 200wMA and prior vary help at 0.0551, for my part the cyclical backside is prone to be in, with value then prone to push in the direction of the trendline resistance. If we drop into the each day, we are able to see how we now have bullish construction with higher-highs and lows, and early this week value is discovering help above 0.0551, pushing again into 0.0577 as we communicate. Given how sturdy the push was final week off the underside, I’d count on to see 0.0577 give manner if retested this week, and value to squeeze into 0.0594 earlier than discovering resistance. Bears must see 0.0577 act as resistance as soon as once more right here, with any shut again beneath 0.0551 now trying like continuation of the longer-term downtrend. Let’s see how the week performs out.
Chainlink:
LINK/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
LINK/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $15.33 (41,455 satoshis)
Market Cap: $8.495bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at LINK/USD, we are able to see that the pair continued its ascent final week and exhibits little signal of slowing, pushing by way of the 200wMA for the primary time since April 2022 and shutting proper on the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at ~$16. While quantity nonetheless seems to be good and there’s no momentum exhaustion on the upper timeframes but, I’d be cautious to leap in proper right here round resistance. If we drop into the each day, once more we are able to see no indicators of divergence up right here however I’d be in search of a pull-back into $13.30 – or near it – earlier than in search of leveraged longs. That additionally aligns with a 200wMA retest, if we get it. Nevertheless, if we don’t get that, we are able to look to play the squeeze into $21 by shopping for the primary shallow pull-back after a each day shut above $16.60 with invalidation beneath at the moment’s low.
Turning to LINK/BTC, we are able to see extra motive why we shouldn’t be fast to leap in with leverage right here in case you are sidelined, because the pair is urgent up in opposition to the 2022 highs and the 200wMA at 45k-47k satoshis. Weekly shut above this could open up one other 15% of upside into the subsequent resistance, however would additionally sign a longer-term reversal and continuation into the 38.2% fib retracement at 76k satoshis, round which there are a number of ranges of resistance. If we briefly take a look at the each day, we are able to see how there’s some minor divergence up right here however value is discovering help at current above prior resistance at 40k satoshis. Except we now shut beneath that, it’s seemingly we a minimum of retest 45k right here. Break and shut above that degree and clearly issues look much more promising for LINK, with solely air between there at 57k satoshis. Nevertheless, both deviate above 45k and shut again inside it, or simply discover resistance beneath it on a retest this week and break beneath 40k and I believe we’re prone to transfer 15% decrease into 35.4k satoshis. The pattern, nevertheless, continues to be very a lot pointing up shifting into 2024.
Polkadot:
DOT/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
DOT/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $5.61 (15,156 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.268bn
Ideas: Starting with DOT/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that after two years of bear market the pair seems to be to have bottomed, breaking above 2023’s trendline resistance a few weeks in the past and turning it into help final week, from which value rallied into the weekly shut at $5.70, reclaiming a number of help ranges. We at the moment are consolidating between reclaimed help at $5.34 and resistance at $6, and if we pull again from right here I’d be in search of the formation of a higher-low above $4.42. If we don’t pull again right here, I’d count on to see any acceptance above $6 result in one other rally into $7.08, the place there’s historic resistance, with a weekly shut above $6 additionally turning construction bullish on this timeframe. Above $7, the cyclical reversal is on and we are able to take a look at that $10-11 space subsequent.
Turning to DOT/BTC, the pair has been in a downtrend for 910 days, dropping 88% of its worth from the all-time excessive throughout that interval. Worth fell inside touching distance of the all-time low at 11.8k satoshis a number of weeks in the past and bounced, reversing sharply final week to shut marginally beneath prior help at 15k satoshis. We nonetheless have bearish weekly construction and a agency downtrend right here, however momentum is trying extra promising after this rally. Bulls now need to see a higher-low type above the all-time low and value to then shut again above 17.8k satoshis from there to start trying like a longer-term backside is in. If we drop into the each day, we are able to see that we’re additionally sat marginally beneath the 200dMA, which as capped the pair since early 2022 – acceptance above that and turning it into help can be a promising signal for a sustained reversal, with 25.6k satoshis the subsequent main resistance above that.
ImmutableX:
IMX/USD
Day by day:
IMX/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $1.22 (3286 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.516bn
Ideas: As IMX has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months, each pairs look nearly an identical and so I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at IMX/USD, we are able to see that value fashioned a backside in September beneath the $0.52 help degree, deviating into $0.48 earlier than rallying sharply on excessive quantity into the 200dMA and rejecting. Worth then fashioned a better low in October above $0.52 and has since been rallying continuous, breaking by way of the 200dMA at $0.70 and reclaiming that degree as help, then persevering with larger so far as help turned resistance at $1.31, which capped the pair earlier this yr. This led to a pointy rejection and swift pullback into $0.80, which held agency as help, and the pair has v-reversed again above $1.10 since. We have now the makings of some momentum exhaustion up right here as we come into this 2023 resistance zone, however given the sharp reversal off that preliminary rejection, I’d count on to see $1.31 give manner on the subsequent try. If that happens and we flip that degree as help, no matter momentum indicators I believe it’s seemingly we take out the 2023 excessive at $1.60 and run into $1.80 resistance. Past that, the remainder of IMX’s first bull cycle awaits in 2024…
Perpetual Protocol:
PERP/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
PERP/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.70 (1889 satoshis)
Market Cap: $50.764mn
Ideas: Starting with PERP/USD, we are able to see that value has been held inside this broader vary between all-time lows and resistance at $1.37 for over 500 days, extra just lately forming a higher-low above reclaimed help at $0.51 and pushing into resistance at $0.75. This $0.50-0.75 vary has held for one of the best a part of three months now and given the amount on the impulse candle off the underside I’m now in search of a weekly shut above $0.75 to verify continuation to the highest finish of the vary later this yr. Longer-term, a weekly shut above $1.37 is what we’re taking a look at for the subsequent section of the cycle to start, however for now so long as we’re above $0.50 the pair seems to be bullish.
Turning to PERP/BTC, we are able to see that value had fashioned a variety above the all-time low at 1516 satoshis and beneath prior help turned resistance at 1942 for months earlier this yr earlier than that prime quantity breakout candle in September. The pair then retraced all of that candle again into the all-time low final week, bouncing above it however remaining capped by 1942 satoshis. The primary signal, subsequently, {that a} reversal is underway can be a weekly shut again above 1942. If we see that, I’d count on value to push up into 2600 satoshis, retesting that space as resistance – and above that we come into crucial degree on the chart to show again into help at 3600 satoshis. Bullish above that all-time low, after all. Briefly dropping into the each day, we are able to see that value is now contending with the 200dMA, the trendline and horizontal resistance, so clearing this cluster with some drive can be promising certainly. Settle for above 1950 and I believe we’re prepared for the subsequent wave.
DIA:
DIA/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
DIA/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.30 (811 satoshis)
Market Cap: $33.26mn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at DIA/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has been in a downtrend since April 2021 however that the volatility has drastically diminished on the latest strikes decrease, with some momentum exhaustion coming into play. Worth fashioned a double backside on the all-time low at $0.215 in Might and September, marginally sweeping that low earlier than pushing off it to show weekly construction bullish as value closed again above reclaimed help at $0.26. Since then, the pair has continued to push up, final week closing above $0.296. We at the moment are sat proper beneath help turned resistance at $0.33, however that is the final degree of main resistance earlier than an enormous vary opens up into the subsequent areas of resistance up close to $0.50. If we see that weekly shut by way of $0.33, I’ll look to purchase spot on a retest if I can get it and search for $0.49 as a primary goal, adopted by $0.58 and $0.78 as the ultimate goal, given how important that degree is traditionally. Longer-term, above that degree, I believe we’re within the midst of a bull cycle for DIA and may simply look to purchase pull-backs, however that’s seemingly months away but.
Turning to DIA/BTC, the pair continues to be capped by trendline resistance from that April 2021 excessive. A few weeks in the past, the pair fashioned a contemporary all-time low at 704 satoshis however now we have clear pattern exhaustion down right here, and the pair has since reclaimed help at 788 satoshis which had beforehand held for a number of months. While we may look to purchase spot right here for a cyclical (12-18 month) place with invalidation on a detailed beneath 704, I would favor to be a little bit extra affected person right here and watch for the trendline breakout and acceptance above 1000 satoshis for that. DIA has by no means skilled a bull cycle regardless of having traded for 3 years, so that is positively one to control. The cyclical place additionally differs from the short-term commerce outlined within the Greenback pair, so relying in your preferences there are two methods to play this.
Saito:
SAITO/USD
Day by day:
SAITO/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $0.0085 (23 satoshis)
Market Cap: $18.063mn
Ideas: As each pairs for SAITO look very related, I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at SAITO/USD, we are able to see that value just lately fashioned a low at $0.0065 and has rallied off that low above trendline resistance that has capped the pair all yr. While this breakout is promising for bulls, the pair stays beneath the 200dMA and is now sat round help turned resistance at $0.0086. This space is especially important traditionally for SAITO, having additionally been the Might-June 2022 backside and the unique help degree when buying and selling started, so a powerful reclaim of this degree as help would, for my part, make it seemingly that the underside is in right here. Affirmation of this could be a weekly shut above $0.01. In that situation, I believe the pair pushes up into the 360dMA and prior help round $0.0125 earlier than discovering any additional resistance after which makes a run for the 2023 excessive at $0.023, starting its subsequent bull cycle. Clearly, if we see the pair reject right here and shut again beneath that trendline, this has been a deviation / failed breakout and we are able to count on the underside to be retested on the very least…
Cellframe:
CELL/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
CELL/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $0.225 (610 satoshis)
Market Cap: $6.493mn
Ideas: Starting with CELL/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair stays capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs and the earliest buying and selling days, having spent most of its price-history in a downtrend but additionally having consolidated for over 500 days above the all-time lows. Worth has just lately turned weekly market construction bullish by closing above $0.185 and is now consolidating beneath $0.245 as resistance, with any acceptance above this degree opening up one other retest of that trendline overhead, in addition to prior help at $0.37. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and am in search of a weekly shut above the trendline and above $0.37 to verify that the primary section of CELL’s first bull cycle is starting. Contemporary all-time lows stay my invalidation right here and I’m trying to maintain this for the majority of the cycle.
If we flip to CELL/BTC, we are able to see that the pair has been flat for the previous 168 days above the all-time low however beneath prior help turned resistance at 770 satoshis. Extra necessary than that, nevertheless, is the extent above it at 1150 satoshis. That can be the August 2021 backside and so a weekly shut above 1150 would flip weekly construction bullish and reclaim that historic degree as help. In case you are on the sidelines in search of an entry, you may look to enter both above that degree or incrementally between right here and there. I’m personally centered right here on the Greenback pair for my general positioning.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions beneath, or electronic mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
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