Market Outlook #248 (third December 2023)
Hi there, and welcome to the 248th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I might be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Oasis Community, Amp and Unibot.
As ever, when you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $39,449
Market Cap: $771.620bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that worth is ready to shut the week at contemporary yearly highs, in addition to highs of the week, on related quantity to the prior three weeks, having rallied off the open at $37.4k into assist turned resistance right here at $39.6k. This continues to look promising for larger costs, to be sincere – momentum nonetheless appears to be like sturdy and we’ve simply closed by way of multi-week resistance. subsequent week, I might anticipate this squeeze to proceed into $42k, the place there’s more likely to be rather more resistance given the confluence. If we do see worth push up into that stage, I might be trying to hedge some spot publicity and look to take away the hedge after we settle for above that stage. For draw back danger, any wick up above $39.6k in the direction of $42k and subsequent shut again inside $39.6k would start to appear to be an area high to me, from which level we will begin in search of shorts probably again so far as $33k to filter all of those current untapped lows. That is clearly assuming we do get that high formation within the subsequent week or two beneath $42k. Invalidation on any brief publicity is clearly acceptance above $42k, however till we appear to be a high has shaped I might not rush to fade the primary weekly shut by way of multi-week consolidation.
Turning to the every day, we will see how momentum had reset and is now curling larger once more as worth has damaged by way of resistance at $38k and turned it into assist on this timeframe, which is tremendous promising for December price-action, for my part. If we will maintain above $38k early subsequent week, I might anticipate worth to simply preserve pushing up with no actual resistance between $39.6k and $42k. If, nonetheless, we deviate above $39.6k early subsequent week after which break and shut again inside $38k, that will appear to be the $42k stage is getting front-run and I might change into much more cautious about lengthy publicity. Not a lot else so as to add right here while construction appears to be like like this…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $2,163 (0.0548 BTC)
Market Cap: $260.285bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD, on the weekly we will see that worth rallied off resistance turned assist at $2037 – a stage which worth had beforehand been chopping round for weeks. From the weekly open, worth discovered assist at that stage and has rallied into new yearly highs at $2190, set to shut the week proper across the prior yearly highs at $2170. This appears to be like very very similar to the start of a breakout from this long-term resistance stage for ETH, significantly after we take into account how $2037 additionally acted as very sturdy resistance in August 2022 and July 2023, with worth solely deviating above that after since Might 2022’s capitulation occasion. This sturdy push off that stage and break of contemporary yearly highs signifies a brand new vary enlargement, for my part, as I’ve been awaiting. If we will flip $2170 into assist subsequent week I feel we see ETH/USD push into $2426 later in December earlier than any additional resistance is discovered. Clearly, if we wick above $2190 subsequent week, making a contemporary yearly excessive, then reject and shut again inside $2170, that will look somewhat extra bearish and we may take into account {that a} deviation has shaped. However till that occurs, this appears to be like prepared for a brand new vary.
ETH/BTC, once more we proceed to consolidated above 0.0533 and beneath the 200wMA at 0.0557, however worth is ready to shut proper round that resistance stage as soon as once more. As I discussed final week, while we’re on this tight vary, there’s little to do, however after we see worth both shut by way of 0.0533 and switch that assist into resistance or shut above 0.0557 and switch the 200wMA into assist, then we will have a look at learn how to play ETH for the foreseeable future. Within the former state of affairs, naturally we’d look to hedge lengthy publicity or open brief publicity, in anticipation of draw back; within the latter, we expect to see the pair rally in the direction of multi-year trendline resistance, subsequently outperforming for a interval. Easy.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $63.45 (0.00161 BTC)
Market Cap: $26.953bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth is discovering assist above prior resistance at $53.60 and is discovering resistance at $62, marginally beneath the place the pair is ready to shut this week. This vary has held for 3 weeks, with weekly momentum not but displaying any divergence, and while we proceed to carry above $53.60 I’m inclined to anticipate larger costs from this vary. If subsequent week see the pair flip this resistance into assist above $64, I feel we see one other leg larger into that vary between $75-82. If, nonetheless, we at any level shut the weekly beneath $53.60 within the subsequent couple of weeks, I might anticipate $48 to be retested beneath because the final stage of assist earlier than a a lot deeper pullback turns into potential in the direction of $36. Dropping into the every day, we will see how momentum has reset now throughout this consolidation, and if we will begin pushing by way of $64 I might anticipate momentum to hold this ahead as soon as once more, with $68 as minor resistance earlier than $75 comes into play. The bearish state of affairs right here subsequent week can be a deviation above $68 adopted by rejection and a detailed again beneath $61; in that state of affairs, I might search for intraweek shorts in the direction of $54, with a view to hedge down there and reopen on acceptance by way of that stage, with $48 then the final word goal for that brief. Beneath $48, you recognize what occurs…
Turning to SOL/BTC, we will see how worth is consolidating above prior resistance at 0.00137 and the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. We’ve resistance overhead at 0.00162, the place worth is at the moment sat, and any acceptance above this opens up continuation into the 38.2% stage at 0.00208, the place there’s additionally prior assist, for my part. So probably 15-20% extra upside from right here if this resistance offers method. If we’re topping out right here, nonetheless, subsequent week ought to see worth shut again beneath 0.00137, making it extra possible we pull-back into that untested stage at 0.00112. If we drop into the every day, we will see how every day construction is popping bullish once more after the transient pullback however there’s resistance proper right here that’s proving troublesome. I feel so long as the pair continues to kind these decrease timeframe higher-lows into this resistance we’re more likely to see it give method and switch into reclaimed assist; from there, I feel we take out 0.0018 and squeeze into 0.002, the place there might be rather more resistance.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $0.811 (2058 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.547bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MATIC/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth has retraced off resistance at $1 into the 200wMA at $0.77 and located assist this previous week, rallying off that stage into $0.82, the place it’s set to shut. Weekly construction is bullish however that $1 space has an enormous quantity of confluence for resistance, and so it’s hardly stunning worth didn’t breach it on the primary try following this rally. What bulls desires to see right here is that the pair kind a macro higher-low now above the reclaimed assist at $0.62 – even when we drop farther from right here into that stage weekly construction would nonetheless be intact if we kind that higher-low in that space. From there, we’d anticipate one other try at a $1 breakout, above which there’s little resistance into $1.30, the place we discover confluence of prior assist, the 38.2% retracement of the bear market and the 78.6% retracement of the 2023 downtrend. Dropping into the every day, we will see how worth is definitely forming some first rate construction right here above the 200dMA and above reclaimed assist at $0.74, with every day construction having turned bullish on this most up-to-date push larger. If this construction holds subsequent week and one other larger low kinds, I don’t suppose we see that deeper retracement earlier than one other try on the $1 breakout. Let’s see how the week unfolds…
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we will see that, following weekly construction turning bullish, worth rallied by way of the 200wMA into 2704 satoshis and rejected, closing again beneath that stage and retracing now into reclaimed assist at 2000 satoshis; a significant historic stage. If we will kind a higher-low on this space, construction appears to be like completely positive for continuation larger within the coming weeks. Nevertheless, shut again beneath 2000 satoshis and this rally feels a lot much less legitimate, with 1800 satoshi assist coming into view for a sweep. Maintain right here and I feel the following leg takes the pair in the direction of 3200 satoshis for the hole fill. Turning to the every day, we will see how worth faked out above the 200dMA earlier than rejecting and retraced again inside that long-term worth space between 1900-2100 satoshis, and for now we’re seeing assist maintain right here. If we will now reclaim 2100 as assist, I might anticipate to see 2450 retested, with acceptance above that resulting in the following leg larger into 2950-3230.
Oasis Community:
ROSE/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ROSE/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $0.0849 (215 satoshis)
Market Cap: $428.513mn
Ideas: Starting with ROSE/USD, we will see that worth continued to rally larger this previous week, pushing past prior resistance at $0.08 into $0.088, with worth set to shut the week marginally beneath that stage. We’re trying on the pair inches away from a breakout past the 2023 highs, with any acceptance subsequent week above $0.088 opening up a brand new vary: above that stage, there’s zero resistance into $0.116 and I’m anticipating that vary to get stuffed in swiftly, significantly following a multi-week consolidation beneath resistance. Clearly, if we deviate above that prime subsequent week and begin breaking down and shutting again beneath it, the image appears to be like somewhat totally different. For now, this very a lot appears to be like prepared for continuation larger, with $0.18 the first goal past $0.116.
Turning to ROSE/BTC, we will see that worth is now above reclaimed assist at 203, with solely prior assist at 219 satoshis appearing as resistance earlier than an enormous vary opens up, offering confluence for the Greenback pair. If we will shut the weekly firmly above 220 subsequent week, I might anticipate ROSE to push in the direction of 280 satoshis in December, with acceptance by way of that stage opening up the primary main resistance stage at 420 – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. Dropping into the every day, we will see how following that multi-week consolidation above the 200dMA, worth has flipped vary resistance at 203 into assist and is now holding that stage; shut again inside that and we’re more likely to return to 180 for a retest, however above it I feel we proceed rallying into 270-280 the place there’s rather more resistance.
Amp:
AMP/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
AMP/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $0.0025 (6 satoshis)
Market Cap: $141.301mn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at AMP/USD, we will see that the pair lately shaped an all-time low at $0.0014 and has since rallied again above assist at $0.0018, now consolidating beneath prior assist turned resistance at $0.003. While that is promising, significantly when taking a look at momentum indicators, weekly construction continues to be bearish and the pair continues to be very a lot in a downtrend, in the interim. If we now see a higher-low kind above $0.0018 and worth then rally and settle for again above $0.03 – a key historic stage – then we will start thinking about a backside to be in and for additional upside to comply with. If that does happen, I might anticipate the pair to rally off that $0.003 stage as assist quickly in the direction of $0.0055. If we see the pair reject this space, nonetheless, and $0.0018 doesn’t maintain, the downtrend persists and contemporary all-time lows are inevitable. Dropping briefly into the every day, we will see that worth is consolidating between the 360dMA as resistance and the 200dMA as assist, with the previous having capped the final main rally, so acceptance above $0.003 may also give us acceptance above a key MA, and a sustained reversal turns into a lot larger likelihood, for my part.
Turning to AMP/BTC, the pair has very a lot performed out a textbook market cycle, with volatility having fully diminished and worth now consolidating in a decent vary round all-time lows. If it is a undertaking you are feeling assured in basically (it is a reader request, and subsequently I can’t touch upon fundamentals right here), this could be precisely the place I might be trying to construct a spot place to be sincere, with a view so as to add above 16 satoshis. Trying on the every day, we’re tightly wound proper beneath the 200dMA additionally, with the 360dMA looming overhead above 10 satoshis; clear all of this and it turns into very seemingly the cyclical backside has shaped, so for these with much less danger urge for food, awaiting that will be clever.
Unibot:
UNIBOT/USD
Every day:
Worth: $62.97 (0.00159 BTC)
Market Cap: $63.399mn
Ideas: Lastly, let’s have a look at a undertaking I’ve lately purchased a spot place in: UNIBOT.
UNIBOT/USD, we will see the pair has solely been buying and selling for just a few months and worth has performed out most of a market cycle at this level, having shaped an all-time excessive at $226 in August and since been trending decrease, capitulating into $27.77 in November however largely spending time in a spread between assist at $43 and resistance at $78. This vary has continued since mid-September and while worth tried a breakout just a few days in the past, this failed and we at the moment are retesting $64 as assist; if this stage fails, I might anticipate $51 to be retested as assist, the place these on the sidelines may additionally look to construct a place with a weekly shut beneath $40 being my invalidation right here. I’m trying to maintain this for a full cycle, anticipating contemporary highs by way of $226. Into 2024 we go…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or e-mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
