Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)
Hey, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I will likely be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Community, TriasLab, Morpheus Community and Cellframe. I will even be offering a year-end replace to Altcoin Market Cap.
That is the final Outlook for 2023. Have an ideal Christmas and a Blissful New 12 months and I’ll see you in 2024.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $40,971
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we will see that value spent final week contained in the vary of the earlier week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the very first thing to think about is the potential for inside week failure, which might kind if we take out both final week’s low or its excessive after which shut again inside that weekly vary. On condition that we bought off from final week’s open into the shut again under $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly vary low (and the broader market outlook), I lean in the direction of the probability of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k earlier than closing again above it. In that situation, we’d count on final week’s excessive to get taken out out and value to probably proceed to squeeze past $45k, with $48.2k as main resistance past that. If, nonetheless, value closes the week under $40.3k, this situation is invalidated and I might count on a deeper pullback from there in the direction of $38k as untested prior resistance.
Dropping into the each day, we will see that each day construction is now bearish, given the break and shut under the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; nonetheless, that wasn’t a lot of a swing level, so while that is technically bearish construction I’m not notably satisfied by it as of but. If we have been to now shut the each day via $40k, that seems far more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the key stage under that if we’re to take out all of these untapped lows alongside the trendline earlier than bottoming out. Nevertheless, if we will proceed to carry right here above $40k (or deviate this low and shut again above it), I might search for a push again above $43k earlier than favouring additional upside; between these ranges I don’t have a lot of a bias. Shut again above $43k and I do assume we proceed to push increased into $48k…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that value retraced the entire good points of the prior weekly enlargement final week, promoting off from the open again into reclaimed assist at $2172. Value depraved under the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as assist, with the pair closing again above $2172. Actually, that is very a lot giving blended alerts: we now have erasure of the earlier week’s good points following enlargement past yearly highs, however we now have a sweep of the weekly low into main assist too. Mainly, chop continues. What I’m taking a look at right here is the place we will proceed to carry above $2172 this week; shut above it after sweeping final week’s low and I feel we now have the makings of a backside earlier than one other run at $2425. If, nonetheless, we shut the week under $2137, I feel we’re more likely to see $1850 taken out earlier than a backside is discovered. Trying on the each day, we will see how each day construction seems set to show bearish right here if we do break and shut under $2137, and if that’s confirmed we will count on $2036 to be examined later this week, however with far more assist down round $1850. Nevertheless, as talked about earlier, sweep this space of prior resistance after which climb again above $2172 later this week and I feel shorts get trapped and we squeeze again in the direction of yearly highs.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that value continues to cut round between assist at 0.051 and resistance round 0.055. There’s little else to be added right here given the narrative has been the identical inside this vary for weeks now. After we break and shut both aspect of the vary, I wouldn’t be fast to fade it.
Casper Community:
CSPR/USD
Day by day:
CSPR/BTC
Day by day:
Value: $0.038 (92 satoshis)
Ideas: On condition that each pairs look nearly similar right here for CSPR, let’s deal with the Greenback pair.
CSPR/USD, we will see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this level, with a lot of that being spent above $0.025 and under $0.055, apart from a quick fakeout past that vary resistance earlier this yr. We’ve bullish construction right here on the each day however have bought off from prior assist up close to the prime quality, with value now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as assist. So long as we now maintain above reclaimed assist at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I might count on to see one other push on the vary resistance from right here up close to $0.055. If this can be a challenge you have an interest in (reader request, FYI), I might think about this nearly as good an entry as any provided that your invalidation right here could possibly be as tight at $0.031; closing under that will invalidate all of this current construction and we’d probably return in the direction of the underside of the vary from there. Trying forward, the disbelief section is clear – shut above $0.073 and I feel this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as main resistance past that.
TriasLab:
TRIAS/USD
Day by day:
TRIAS/BTC
Day by day:
Value: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, given how related these pairs look right here, let’s deal with the Greenback pair, because the construction can also be somewhat cleaner.
TRIAS/USD, we will see that value was in an extended interval of enlargement off the underside earlier than spending a lot of 2023 in consolidation under $4.15, faking out above that stage as soon as. This lengthy consolidation vary led to cost winding tighter with the 360dMA performing as assist and value then reclaiming the 200dMA as assist in October. Since, the pair has rallied in the direction of $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that stage and most not too long ago damaged out sharply past that resistance, breaking recent yearly highs via $5. Given this market construction, I might completely not be fading this, as a substitute contemplating this probably the start of the following main leg increased for TRIAS. If we will now maintain above $4.15, I might count on $6.40 to offer approach and value to make its approach in the direction of trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up close to $12 earlier than the following native high types.
Morpheus Community:
MNW/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
MNW/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MNW/USD on the weekly, we will see that value continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected under the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior assist ~$1.46. We’re at present discovering assist above $0.94, as has been the case since late final yr, however to be trustworthy this isn’t a very enticing long-term chart at current. We’ve value discovering assist above the 200wMA in Nov final yr, then rallying to recent yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, however then rejecting, erasing the good points again into the 200wMA after which rallying far more weakly off that very same assist into the trendline. If that $0.94 assist goes, this pair returns to bearish construction on the weekly, in order that’s at present your most vital stage. Till it will get a weekly shut via that trendline and again above $1.50, I wouldn’t have an interest on this to be trustworthy – significantly better alternatives out there.
MNW/BTC, we will see that the pair may be very a lot nonetheless in a bear cycle at current, with recent lows on the latest break and shut under 3264 satoshis. Value is now sat in no man’s land, with main assist under close to 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 stage. There’s additionally no signal simply but of pattern exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I really feel like given how not too long ago this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), it is going to be some time but earlier than this one absolutely bottoms out; while most of its value capitulation seems to have occurred, we could must see a interval of flat consolidation earlier than one other cycle can start for MNW.
Cellframe:
CELL/USD
Day by day:
CELL/BTC
Day by day:
Value: $0.19 (475 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, very like a few different tokens on this publish, CELL’s pairs look very related right here and I’m specializing in the Greenback pair, as that can also be what I’m basing my long-term place on.
So, taking a look at CELL/USD, we will see that value has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed assist above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We stay capped by the long-term trendline resistance, however following the multi-year downtrend we now have been consolidating above all-time lows and under $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and if I used to be not absolutely allotted I might be shopping for some inside this vary. Invalidation can be recent all-time lows, the place I might reduce and watch for a reclaim or a brand new vary formation. However given the broader market circumstances I feel we usually tend to proceed chopping round right here after which begin reversing sharply when ETH begins outperforming. Above $0.37 the primary bull cycle begins…
Altcoin Market Cap:
ALT/USD
Weekly:
ALT/BTC
Weekly:
Market Cap: $441.2bn
Ideas: Starting with ALT/USD, we will see that the altcoin market has emerged lastly after over 500 days of being range-bound, not too long ago rallying again via the 200wMA, consolidating above it as assist after which pushing via multi-year resistance at $413bn. We’ve pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market right here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating inside the prior weekly vary. I might count on to see additional consolidation right here after the multi-week rally, however there may be nothing bearish about this on the upper timeframes. So long as we will now maintain above that $400bn space, I might count on the following squeeze to open up a wider vary, the place issues will get very attention-grabbing: above $480bn, there isn’t any resistance for alts again into the 38.2% fib and prior assist close to $590bn – over 25% increased from right here. That’s the place I might count on extra resistance to be discovered for alts and maybe a broader market correction. Disbelief is changing into hope.
ALT/BTC, we will see that regardless of some good points in Greenback values of alts – and big good points on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – we now have largely been trending decrease in opposition to BTC for over a yr. Most not too long ago, alts depraved under assist at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with pattern exhaustion now showing on this timeframe. We additionally noticed the market shut above trendline resistance, marginally – that is all indicative of a interval of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Greenback valuation of the altcoin market. If we will reclaim 11.4mn as assist right here, I feel that would be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year vary assist up close to 13.3mn BTC.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the ultimate one in every of 2023!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
