Recent developments in the crypto market saw a surge in liquidations totaling nearly $350 million as Bitcoin experienced a brief drop below the $69,000 mark, causing significant ripples among traders ahead of the upcoming United States presidential election on November 5.
On November 3, CoinGlass reported liquidations amounting to $349.8 million, with $259.7 million stemming from long bets and $90.1 million from short bets. This marked the highest liquidation activity since October 25, coinciding with Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum above $70,000.
Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price exhibited substantial volatility, commencing at around $67,700 on October 28, surging to a peak of nearly $73,300 on October 29, and subsequently dropping to a low of $67,719 on November 3. Despite these fluctuations, Bitcoin has since rebounded and is currently trading at $69,145 according to CoinGecko.
The fluctuating price of Bitcoin mirrored its journey towards approaching its peak value from March. The uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s value coincides with the narrowing gap in betting odds on Polymarket between the two US presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
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During early October, Trump surpassed Harris on Polymarket as the favored candidate, reaching a pinnacle of a 67% chance of winning by October 30. This figure has now dwindled to 56%, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards the election outcome.
Trump’s campaign promises, particularly his supportive stance towards the crypto industry by vowing to dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler and elevate the US as a global crypto hub, have garnered favor within the crypto community. In contrast, Harris has adopted a more cautious approach towards crypto, emphasizing the need for a regulatory framework within the sector.
As election day draws near, Trump’s odds on Polymarket closely align with the latest polling data, indicating a close competition between the two candidates. Recent data from FiveThirtyEight showed Harris leading Trump by a slim 0.9 percentage point margin on November 3, a significant shift from her 3.5 percentage point lead in August.
Speculation within the trading community suggests that Bitcoin’s value could potentially soar to $100,000 if Trump secures victory, while analysts at Bernstein have warned of a possible decline in Bitcoin’s price by the year-end under a Harris administration.
Following the election outcome, crypto traders anticipate a minimum 10% price movement in Bitcoin based on the winning candidate. The uncertainty surrounding the election result has injected further volatility into the crypto market, setting the stage for potential significant price shifts in the near future.
Disclaimer: Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.
