Bitcoin’s next big test is coming

Plus: Is stablecoin regulation a win or a trap?

We’re kicking off today’s squeeze with something extra juicy:

BitDegree’s $30K Season 7 Airdrop

is live!

Earn Bits by simply answering questions and completing micro tasks – they’ll decide your $$ share of the prize pool when the Season ends on April 30.

Oh, and to make it even sweeter,

Uphold’s

adding an extra 1,000 USDC to the mix – but only until March 24.

No time to waste! Soo… you in or what? 😏

GM. Some days, the market’s a fruit basket; today, it’s a fruit fight. We’ve dodged the bruises to bring you the tastiest pieces.

⚖️ The GENIUS Act.

🍋 News drops: US lawmaker who isn’t feeling the strategic crypto reserve, UK crime officer who committed crime + more

🍍 Market flavor today

Fear is back on the menu, y’all.

But Trader Jelle’s got his eyes on the Pi Cycle Top indicator (a tool that has a scary good track record of predicting Bitcoin’s peaks) – and it’s not even close to flashing a warning yet.

Translation: BTC still has plenty of room to grow.

Before that happens, tho’, it’s gonna need to break through big fat resistance levels at $84K and $90K. And even before reaching those, BTC first has to reclaim $83.7K (its 200-day moving average).

Without that, any breakout’s gonna be wobbly at best.

There’s one thing working in Bitcoin’s favor: the market might finally be done panicking.

Bitwise’s André Dragosch thinks we’ve hit peak US economic uncertainty – so bad news just isn’t freaking people out as hard anymore cuz they got used to it.

Translation: the worst has prolly already been priced in, and that’s usually a bottom signal.

Investor Lark Davis thinks Bitcoin could rally in late April or early May – if the right conditions fall into place:

• M2 increases = more money in circulation = extra cash that could find its way into crypto;

• Inflation cools down, interest rates drop;

• New crypto ETFs launch;

• Global tensions ease (the Russia-Ukraine war and trade disputes).

But it’s far from guaranteed. If macro issues don’t get resolved, Bitcoin doesn’t react as expected to money supply changes, or a recession kicks in – investors may hesitate to take on risk.

So yeah, the short-term is uncertain. Long-term, tho’? Bitcoin is growing:

• Deutsche Bank says a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could set a global trend – and in that case, VanEck predicts Bitcoin could hit seven figures;

• Russia’s using it for trade deals with China & India;

• Public companies are increasingly investing in BTC:

Basically, BTC’s still got some homework to do before it graduates, but the big picture is bullish 🎓

🥝 Memecoin harvest

Your uncle, who called crypto stupid internet money, is sweating after seeing these gains… (Except when it comes to memecoins – yeah, he might’ve been right. But who cares) 👀

Data as of 07:50 AM EST.

Check out these memecoins and plenty more here.

After last week’s White House Crypto Summit, one thing is clear: the US government sees stablecoins as their secret sauce for keeping the dollar king of the world 👑

And this time, it wasn’t an all bark, no bite type of thing.

Case in point: the GENIUS Act passed the Senate Banking Committee with an 18-6 bipartisan vote.

Yes, it still has to pass through Congress and get signed into law. But it’s closer than ever.

If the GENIUS Act becomes law, it’ll finally set some clear rules for how stablecoin issuers operate:

• Smaller issuers (under $10B market cap) will be regulated at the state level, while the big dawgs over $10B (Tether and Circle) will be handled by the FED & OCC;

• Issuers will have to be 100% transparent about their reserves and report their liquidity every month;

• Maintain a strict 1:1 backing with US dollars or other super liquid assets;

• Fulfill redemptions on demand (aka, give you your money back when you ask). If they don’t, the Fed & OCC can shut them down or fine them;

• AML and KYC rules are in full force.

This could be a big W for the industry. More clarity = more trust = more adoption 🚀

But not everyone’s excited. SmarDex founder Jean Rausis says this bill isn’t just about better regulation – it’s about control.

His take: the US realized that stablecoins are basically a demand machine for the dollar. So, instead of fighting them, the government now wants to own them.

Why’s that a problem? Cuz once stablecoin issuers start following strict government rules, regulators gain the power to freeze transactions whenever they want – basically turning them into a CBDC in disguise.

And what happens to issuers that don’t play by the rules? Well… just look at Tether in the EU. Non-compliance = getting crushed.

He’s got a point – centralized stablecoins do hand regulators a ton of power.

But whether that’s good or bad depends on how you look at it.

• Some argue that clear rules help stablecoins integrate into TradFi, which could be a net positive;

• Others see it as a threat to financial privacy.

Crypto is maturing, so the real battle is no longer about whether regulation is coming – but about how much freedom will be left once it inevitably does.

I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

🍋 News drops

😡 Michigan Rep. Gerald E. Connolly wants the US Treasury to ditch the idea of a strategic crypto reserve. He called it useless for the American people and just a money printer for the president and his donors.

🚮 Vermont dropped its case against Coinbase’s staking services. The SEC has dropped theirs + new federal rules are on the way, so the state was like, why fight a battle that’s already over?

⚖️ The guy behind AML Bitcoin was found guilty of wire fraud and money laundering. He raised $2M through an ICO, never launched the coin, and blew the money on houses and luxury cars.

👮‍♂️ Paul Chowles, a UK crime officer, is accused of stealing 50 Bitcoin during an investigation. Kinda like a firefighter starting fires.

🐛 Ethereum devs are launching a third testnet, Hoodi, after the first two testnets tripped over some bugs. The Pectra upgrade is now delayed until at least late April.

🍌 Juicy memes