Bitcoin stalls near record highs amid derivative pressures but breakout potential remains

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to exhibit on-chain strength despite a prolonged period of price compression between $100,000 and $105,000. 

According to Fidelity Digital Assets’ VP of research, Chris Kuiper, the flagship crypto remains in its “Acceleration Phase,” a period characterized by elevated wallet profitability and volatility, even as derivatives activity dampens upward momentum.

Bitcoin closed at $104,119 on May 13, with 99% of addresses in profit. Fidelity data shows that 10 days in May have qualified as high-profit, high-volatility sessions. Historically, this phase has aligned with breakout movements, including the surge that followed the US election in late 2020. 

Despite these conditions, Bitcoin has been unable to decisively breach its upper resistance levels, with closing prices largely contained within a narrow $94,000 to $104,000 band throughout the first half of May.

Derivatives activity creating headwinds

According to a May 16 report by CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, the restrained price action stems from structural pressures in the derivatives market.

The report highlighted that cumulative net taker volume, a measure of aggressive trading flow, has remained negative since Bitcoin reclaimed the $100,000 level. This imbalance shows that short positions have outweighed longs, generating sustained selling pressure. 

The bearish positioning indicates that traders are skeptical of a near-term move to new all-time highs and are actively betting against further upside. As long as this imbalance persists, Bitcoin’s upward potential remains capped despite favorable conditions in spot and on-chain markets.

Price stagnation in the presence of bullish fundamentals is not unprecedented. However, even strong network signals can be muted temporarily when derivative flows overpower spot accumulation. 

The current divergence between derivatives activity and on-chain profitability highlights the friction in Bitcoin’s price discovery process.

Bitcoin volatility hits record low vs. gold

Bitcoin’s muted price movement has also resulted in a historic compression of volatility, which has hit levels last seen more than 10 years ago.

VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, noted on May 16 that Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility has dropped below gold’s for the first time since data tracking began. 

Based on Bloomberg terminal metrics, the BBR/GC1 ratio is now at 0.857, its lowest level over a decade.

While derivatives positioning remains a near-term barrier, historical patterns suggest that prolonged periods of volatility suppression have often preceded large directional moves. 

Whether that materializes again depends on shifts in taker flow, macro conditions, and liquidity conditions.

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