Bitcoin Risks Testing This Critical Support As Bullish Strength Wanes

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The price of Bitcoin has shown signs of indecision and exhaustion over the past few days, with mostly sideways movement and a couple of unsustained breaks above $105,000. This lack of momentum comes as the crypto market continues to grapple with the impact of the ongoing unrest in the Middle East.

While the current choppiness of the Bitcoin price action suggests that the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum is, at the time, insufficient for a break, recent on-chain data not only corroborates this inference but also offers insights into the potential next stop for the flagship cryptocurrency.

Advanced Sentiment Index Slips Beneath 50%

In a June 14 post on the X platform, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Bitcoin’s bullish sentiment amongst investors may be starting to lose intensity. This on-chain observation is based on the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index metric, which measures the balance between bullish and bearish positioning in the market to gauge overall trader sentiment.

As its name suggests, this on-chain indicator offers insight into the general sentiment in a particular cryptocurrency market. For instance, a reading above 60-70% typically signals strong bullish sentiment in the market and is usually seen before or during price rallies.

Meanwhile, when the metric’s value is around 50%, it usually indicates neutral market sentiment, meaning there is a level of indecision or balance between bears and bulls. This is usually recorded in a consolidation phase, which precedes definitive directional movement in the market.

On the other end of the spectrum, when the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index reads below 40-50%, it implies growing fear or caution in the market, which could precede further loss in BTC’s value. However, it could also potentially indicate a bottom if the sentiment were to be overly pessimistic.

Source: @AxelAdlerJr on X

In the post on X, Adler Jr. reported a drop in the Sentiment Index below the neutral 50% threshold to about 46%, which falls within the bearish territory. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s Sentiment Index peaked above 80% early in the month of June but slowly started to decline after hitting the high.

As BTC recently rallied to $105,000 from $103,000, other important metrics such as the open interest also indicated very little investor support, further demonstrating weak bullish presence.

What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?

Adler Jr. opined that the indecisiveness currently being observed in the market might continue until something important — like the Sentiment Index — changes. For the uptrend to resume, the analyst explained that the Index has to rebound above 60-65%, which would only occur if there are simultaneous increases in net taker volume and open interest.

If this does not happen, the Bitcoin price risks testing the next support level, around $102,000 — $103,000. For this reason, caution when dealing in the market is essential, as the next support’s strength is still highly probabilistic.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $105,419, reflecting no significant price movement in the past 24 hours.

The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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