I felt compelled to write this, for the same reasons I started a channel many years ago, to save time and answer as many questions at once, I will point people here. And no, it’s not financial advice and yes, do your own research, it’s easier than ever now. This is all I know, for what that is worth, but it’s been learned through years of experimenting, getting things wrong, a few right, and getting better each cycle. I hope it helps you all.
For the first time this cycle I am getting crypto veterans reach out and ask for my take and I am starting to see the early signs of friends and family poking around too. There are many familiar signs, some of the same energy and timing the shape and the stage of the run on these things alone isn’t as hard as you think. However, there are many new factors and forces at play that must be considered.
This run won’t be ‘just another’ bull run. I’ve said it many times before, this is the biggest we will ever see in this space. I believe it’s shaping up to be a manifesto moment for crypto, a convergence of signals and narratives we’ve never experienced all at once. In previous cycles, we rode waves of euphoria and survived brutal winters. Now, as the next altcoin season approaches, the stage is set for a finale of unprecedented scale. It’s as if history is rhyming with 2017 and 2021, but the chorus has new verses, new singers, some of the same and a lot of mistakes to avoid.
Today, I will break down why this upcoming alt season will outshine the rest, part hard fact, part conviction, grounded in patterns we know yet amplified by phenomena we’ve never seen before. It’s time to rally around what’s painfully obvious to those paying attention and seize the opportunity of a lifetime.
Bitcoin’s market dominance (BTC.D) is on the decline, breaking out of its long, long-standing uptrend. We are now approaching the critical 60% threshold, a level that in past cycles signaled the rotation of capital into altcoins.
One number has repeatedly proven to be the magic threshold between Bitcoin-led rallies and broad altcoin fireworks, 60% Bitcoin dominance. Bitcoin dominance is simply BTC’s share of total crypto market cap, and when it falls, it means investors are rotating into higher-beta altcoins. In every previous bull market, once BTC’s dominance dropped back under 60%, a full-fledged altcoin season was triggered, yet we tend to let greed navigate our paths when the data speaks volumes. It’s a pattern as old as crypto cycles themselves, money first floods into Bitcoin, pushing dominance up, then as Bitcoin takes a breather near its highs, capital flows down the risk ladder into Ethereum and other alts, igniting a implosion of well, you just have to experience it for yourself.
Historically, 60% BTC.D is the tipping point where this rotation begins. In 2017, Bitcoin’s dominance fell from 85% to below 60% and then collapsed toward 38% at the peak of alt season. In 2021, a similar break under 60% unleashed an altcoin mania that saw countless tokens 10x-ing overnight. Seasoned traders, OGs and the likes all know this playbook well, ride Bitcoin until dominance hits the high 60s, then pivot hard into alts as BTC.D slips back under 60%. We are knocking on that door right now. I wrote an article on Jan 3 with price predictions that you can read here. Bitcoin’s dominance recently topped out and started falling, hovering just above 60% and is threatening to go lower. On charts, it’s breaking down from a bearish wedge and eyeing the high-50s. The moment BTC.D definitively falls through 60%, it’s game on for alts, and this time, the surge could be bigger and faster than ever, because of all the other factors below fueling the fire.
If that pattern holds yet again, we’re on the cusp of a familiar face-melting greed-fueled frenzy. But this cycle, once the alt season floodgates open, the usual script will get a twist from forces Bitcoin maximalists never had to contend with before.
In past crypto booms, cheap money and easy liquidity have been silent co-conspirators and oh, we love them so. When the U.S. Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, cutting interest rates or printing money (in crypto speak — money printer go brr) risk assets like crypto historically benefit. Remember 2017’s rally? It unfolded in an era of low rates and global Quantitative Easing. The 2020–2021 ‘super-bull run’, were you here for that?. It was supercharged by unprecedented money printing and near-zero rates, flooding markets with liquidity and filling bags. It’s no coincidence that crypto winters set in when the Fed turns hawkish (2018, 2022), sucking liquidity out and sending tokens plummeting in value. This time, after a long stretch of rate hikes, the pendulum is about to swing back.
All eyes are on the Fed as it approaches a pivot from tightening to rate cuts. Analysts widely agree that a Fed rate cut would be a green light for the next explosive phase of crypto growth and we are all watching for September 17, when the next announcement is made. Current market data suggests that despite Bitcoin’s recent strength, fresh highs might need a catalyst like Fed easing to truly ignite. As one Cointelegraph analysis noted, “current inflows — even with ETFs — aren’t enough to offset outflows. The market may need a major catalyst, such as interest rate cuts, to reignite demand.” In other words, the spark of a Fed rate reduction could set off the powder keg that has been quietly building in crypto. Traditionally we would have started the run by now if looking at previous starting points post halving, which is why this is wound like a rubber-band and ready to go snap. The longer we wait, the bigger it will be in my humble opinion. As the lower rates make cash cheaper, expect billions of sidelined cash to work out there is no yield in bonds or savings, and see Bitcoin and Ethereum doing multiples. The FOMO is hard to overstate.
In past cycles, we didn’t always have a clear “Fed moment” to point to but now we do. This will be the first bull cycle where a Fed pivot is an anticipated part of the narrative from the start. The crypto community is watching the central bank as closely as equity traders. When the Fed finally says “we’re cutting,” it’s not just Wall Street that will rejoice, it’s crypto Twitter, Telegram trading groups, and everyone who remembers how loose money = bullish crypto and up only altcoins. If Bitcoin dominance falling is the starting gun, the Fed’s dovish turn is the turbocharger that can send the entire market into overdrive.
Every alt season has a general, Ethereum. Historically, ETH has often led the altcoin brigades in their charge against Bitcoin’s dominance. We see it time and again, Bitcoin surges to new highs, then stalls, Ethereum then begins outperforming Bitcoin, signaling that the market’s risk appetite is shifting. That’s exactly when mid-cap and small-cap alts go vertical. A key metric to watch here is the ETH/BTC ratio, essentially how strong Ethereum is relative to Bitcoin. When this ratio surges, it means ETH is gaining on BTC, an early warning bell for the alt season to begin.
A specific line in the sand has a proven record, an ETH/BTC weekly close above 0.058. According to analysis of past cycles, an ETH weekly close above 0.058 BTC has preceded every major alt season since 2017. This is key for the run, but I personally think less so than before due to Solana and others taking market share from Ethereum. In prior runs, once ETH/BTC cleared that 0.058 hurdle, the entire alt market went into beast mode. It’s a sign that big money is rotating from the comparatively “safe” Bitcoin into Ethereum, essentially the gateway drug to the altcoin universe. When Ethereum, the #2 crypto, is outperforming Bitcoin, it encourages investors to venture further out along the risk curve into smaller alts and the deeply disgusting penny stocks of crypto.
Right now, Ethereum is showing all the early signs of that leadership role. In recent months, ETH/BTC has been climbing off cycle lows, hinting that a bottom in the ratio might be in. Technical analysts are buzzing about Ethereum’s strength, and having a right old time on social media with chart patterns like bull flags and breakouts against BTC, being observed, with notable traders pointing out a trend shift in ETH’s favor. In plain English, Ether is starting to outpace Bitcoin’s gains. If this trend continues and especially if that crucial 0.058 level (or 5.8% of a BTC) is breached on a weekly chart, it would shout “Alt season is here” to the entire market.
Why do some people say that matters more now than ever? Because Ethereum today is far more significant than in past cycles. It’s not just a smart-contract platform anymore, it’s the backbone of DeFi, NFTs, and so many crypto sub-sectors. When ETH moves, dozens of major alt projects built on Ethereum (and its competitors) move in tandem. A strong ETH/BTC means confidence in altcoin fundamental value is high across the board. It sets off a chain reaction and if Ethereum is rallying hard, people assume other large-cap alts (Solana, Cardano, etc.) could be next, and from there they jump into mid-caps and then go into the ‘dear diary’ tokens.
AI tokens are set to rewrite the markets this run. For the first time ever, we are heading into a bull run with artificial intelligence as a major narrative and sector in crypto. In 2017, nobody was talking about “AI tokens.” In 2021, a few projects (like Fetch.ai or SingularityNET) existed but they were sideshows to DeFi and NFTs. But now, in the last 2 years, the world woke up to AI in a big way when ChatGPT went mainstream. AI investment is booming, and a slew of crypto projects are riding that wave. Yet, we have never seen these AI tokens go through a full-blown crypto bull market before.
Even in the relatively flat market of the past year, just the idea of AI in crypto was enough to send key AI tokens soaring to frothy valuations. That was like a sneak preview, a borrowing of upside in late 2024, before the real bull run has even begun. If that speculation created those ridiculous valuations in a neutral market, imagine what it will do when retail and the full market wakes up. Expect parabolic gains.
And it’s not just standalone AI tokens, entire platforms are weaving AI into broader crypto experiences. For instance, platforms like Orange Web3, which blend AI-powered tools with virtual worlds, gaming, and creator economies, are poised to fly. Orange Web3 aggregates top AI tech to enable user-generated 3D worlds, games, and digital experiences on blockchain. This type of a platform asks the user ‘Do you have an idea of what you want to build today?’ and with a few clicks allow you to produce a game, app or world with a full creator economy and a ready-made audience right out the door. Such projects exemplify how the next generation of altcoins will have cross-pollinated narratives. They’re not just “an AI token” or “a metaverse token”, they’re all of the above. In this cycle, those that can ride multiple hype waves at once will have a gale-force wind at their backs. Orange Web3’s ORNG token, for example, sits at the intersection of several trends and could benefit exponentially when any of those narratives catch fire.
Humanity is fascinated by the AI promise and token speculators will be like pigs at the trough for these AI themed offerings.
If AI tokens represent a new, sophisticated narrative, the memecoin explosion represents the raw, degenerate and speculative spirit of crypto and it’s already given us a teaser outside of any broader bull run. We’ve just witnessed the birth of a memecoin supercycle in the middle of a bear market. That alone should make every crypto trader sit up and pay attention. Why? Because it signals that retail speculation, which isn’t even here yet in full, and the frenetic, degenerate energy that often marks the peak of bull runs, is alive and kicking, even in off-season.
In spring 2023 and through 2024, we saw something extraordinary, meme coins went on a rampage without Bitcoin or Ethereum hitting new all-time highs. Tokens like PEPE came out of nowhere and ran to multi-billion dollar market caps in weeks, catching everyone off guard. In one month, the Pepe memecoin rocketed to $1.5 billion valuation, turning early buyers into millionaires overnight. That set off a chain reaction, (pardon my Solana pun), dozens of other memecoins of which many were completely worthless in fundamentals launched and pumped purely on vibes, memes, and FOMO. It was an insane casino where a new coin could 10x in a day, all of this, mind you, while the broader crypto market was relatively subdued. As one recap noted, the minor explosion of meme coins in 2024 marked one of the most explosive and unpredictable chapters in crypto history. It was like a flashback to the Dogecoin and Shiba Inu mania of 2021, but happening in the equivalent of the off-season.
The appetite for high-risk, high-reward gambles is as strong as ever. Human nature hasn’t changed and with more people crypto-aware now, the pool of potential gamblers is larger. We effectively had a memecoin mini-bull run in isolation. Soon, when the real bull run kicks in, when BTC is at highs and every media outlet is talking crypto again. That speculative fever we saw with PEPE and friends is likely to return on an even grander scale. Memecoins will come roaring back for a round two, bringing hordes of retail speculators back into the market. The difference is, this time they’ll be riding a market that’s already bullish, with more liquidity and attention to fuel the fire.
The taste test was a success and the main course hasn’t yet been served. Look out.
One of the clearest differences in this cycle is who is driving the early stages of the rally. In the past, crypto bull runs were overwhelmingly a retail phenomenon, everyday folks worldwide FOMOing in, googling “how to buy Bitcoin,” and holding up pieces of hand-written paper and photos for entry on exchanges to chase green candles. Institutions and traditional finance were late to the party or absent. This time, it’s almost the inverse in the early innings, institutional capital is flowing in heavily via new regulated vehicles, while retail participation is like trying to find Steve when its his turn to buy a round of drinks. They will be back and with more friends this time.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are finally here (or on the verge of approval) in the U.S. and other major markets. This is huge. Investment Cabals like BlackRock, Fidelity, and others have thrown their hat in the ring to offer Bitcoin ETFs, and some have already launched globally. These products did not exist in previous cycles. They now provide a secure, simple way for large funds, pensions, and ordinary investors via brokerage accounts to get Bitcoin exposure. These guys play different, and their lunch money is a lot more than ours. ETF assets are stacking up billions in BTC and data shows that since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, a significant chunk of Bitcoin’s supply has been absorbed by these funds. One report highlighted that as of mid-2025, ETF shareholders collectively owned roughly $135 billion USD in BTC. BlackRock’s own Bitcoin Trust has reportedly generated more revenue than some of its flagship traditional ETFs. This wall of institutional money is something crypto has never seen at scale. It provides a strong foundation and vote of confidence beneath the market and we know the big money is positioning.
But retail…… If you look at on-chain metrics, the typical signs of retail FOMO, new small wallets, spikes in Google Trends, Reddit flooding with coin talk, are MIA. On-chain, small wallet activity is at multi-year lows, which makes it look like retail investors are asleep. I know many everyday investors are still on the sidelines, scarred by the 2022 crash or simply not paying attention yet. Those that are investing might be doing so in new ways. Analysts note that a large portion of retail demand this cycle might actually be flowing through TradFi rails like ETFs and investment advisors, instead of directly buying crypto on exchanges. It is possible that retail is trickling in through the side door, indirectly via their brokerage accounts, while the direct, careless retail buying we saw in 2017 and 2021 hasn’t fully begun.
We are still early.
We have to stop to look at how far the crypto industry’s relationship with governments and regulators has come. In 2017, Bitcoin was often dismissed by officials or outright banned in some countries (remember China’s exchange ban?). In 2021, the U.S. SEC was still fighting ETFs and suing projects, and many politicians railed against crypto. Fast forward to now, for the first time, we are entering a bull cycle with a largely pro-crypto or at least crypto-curious government stance in many major economies and the POTUS has an NFT collection, a memecoin and a stable coin something or rather. The very fact that ETFs exist is mind-blowing.
In the United States, 2025 has brought signs of a shift toward regulatory clarity and acceptance. We’re seeing bills in Congress to define crypto oversight, talk of ending the bygone era of “regulation by enforcement,” and even the prospect of a more crypto-friendly administration. As one global report noted, “In the U.S., 2025 brings a shift to a more crypto-friendly regulatory stance. The new administration has demonstrated the end of the previous ‘regulation by enforcement’ approach and instead [is crafting] clearer rules for digital assets.” This is huge.
Globally, it’s a similar story. The EU’s comprehensive crypto framework (MiCA) is passed, giving businesses a rulebook to operate by. Countries like Hong Kong have reopened doors to crypto trading, aiming to be hubs rather than hostile which is welcome news to those of us who have been in the space a long while. The Middle East, led by UAE, has set up crypto-friendly free zones and is working with Web3 companies. Even historically cautious places are warming up to the idea and the $$$.
This could be the first cycle with overt government participation in crypto markets. By that I mean, sovereign wealth funds or nation-backed funds might be buying via those ETFs or directly. El Salvador holds Bitcoin as legal tender and yeah its a tiny country, but small steps start everything.
With it, though, we will see the setting of the sun on the wild-wild west that was crypto until now.
All the indicators and trends mentioned and the technical triggers like BTC dominance and ETH/BTC, the macro catalyst of Fed easing, the new narratives of AI and the rekindled flame of memecoins, the institutional foundation via ETFs, and the blessing (or at least the POTUS participating) of governments, lead to one place and only one place IMO, this is the last big dance, the last call for the last train to leave the station. It’s not like you haven’t been given the heads up.
We will have seen the last of the regular 1000x tokens and we will be in a boring stock-market style situation by the end of this run. Which side of history will you be on?
