In my last blog titled The Last Great Crypto Bull Run, I laid out why this could be the last great crypto bull run, and why our next alt season is unlike any of the previous cycles. It wasn’t meant to be alarmist, it was a call to prepare yourself. Since then, the chorus of ‘altseason is here!’ has only grown louder. Social feeds are full of charts and moonshot predictions and influencers who have been around since 2024 posting about how they’ve endured the worst bear market ever and now retired or posting 10 pictures of sports cars, saying ‘all the late nights finally paid off’. But if you’re one of those already counting your unrealised gains, let me get you a comfy chair, so you can sit down and hear why you’re probably wrong about this cycle.
It’s Not Only About a Single Metric
Those cheering declare victory because the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) has jumped above 75, signaling that 75% of the top coins are outperforming Bitcoin. That’s significant the index briefly hit 80 this month and trading volumes for altcoins have overtaken BTC and ETH for the first time in ages. Bitcoin dominance, which usually has to fall below 60% before altcoins really fly, has slipped to about 57.9%. Technical traders are watching TOTAL3 (the total altcoin market cap excluding BTC and ETH) press against a four‑year resistance line. These are important ingredients, and they echo the triggers I discussed previously, weakening BTC dominance and improved liquidity are exactly what we expect in the lead‑up to an alt season.
But us beaten and battered, weathered and downtrodden observers know the index can spike briefly without an enduring cycle. In August, before the latest run, the ASI sat in the low 40s hardly alt‑season territory. Bitcoin’s share is still well above the mid‑50s levels that marked past manic phases. Many top‑100 coins remain 80–90% below their previous all‑time highs. Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe call 2025 a “meme‑coin fiesta,” not a true rotation. Essentially the market is like a person who can’t decide what outfit to wear for a big night out. A few metrics scream “go”, others whisper “Ignore the lambo pictures, it aint time”. I am very sure most of the rhetoric and voices are meant to throw you off your game, after all it is a zero-sum game and we can’t all make money.
Every Cycle Has Its False Starts
Crypto cycles are reflexive. In 2017 and 2021, retail traders piled into altcoins only after Bitcoin had already captured headlines. That’s right, history tells us retail is always fashionably late and this is no exception. As soon as BTC dominance cracked, liquidity poured into Ethereum and then into whatever narrative was hot at that minute. This time, we are seeing false starts and new influencers calling something they’ve never seen before and therefore confusing what it is. We’ve had record inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs, but retail hasn’t shown up in force. Some metrics are encouraging with a handful of AI tokens and memecoins going vertical, but that doesn’t mean the entire market is in full rotation. Rising exchange deposits may reflect traders preparing to sell, not accumulate, which is always an interesting tell. The notion of a all-boats-rise-with-the-tide altseason may even be obsolete, one analyst recently quipped that altseason is dead because only “five coins pump while 5,000 bleed”. I am constantly engaged in coversations with people who say this run was a non-event and is over, others saying we won’t peak until 2026 mid-year and others asking ‘Am I too late’? The fact that nobody is sure is the only constant. We need that uncertainty and most importantly we need these people who are impatient.
Macro and Micro Dynamics Matter
Remember the Fed pivot I mentioned, could happen on the 17th of September? I was feeling a bit silly there for a bit as it was only a 30% chance of happening and people saying its not going to go until 2026. But history is our teacher until its not anymore. We’re still waiting but now we have a 97% chance according to Polymarket. Rate cuts and a flood of liquidity are likely prerequisites for a euphoric alt season. Institutional adoption has changed the market structure. Coinbase’s research notes that improved liquidity and tighter bid/ask spreads are creating room for rotation, which is good and bad, especially considering we now have a whole class of 2024 who trade pump.fun 1 second charts. Yet macro volatility and regulatory uncertainty can slam the brakes on risk assets. In this cycle, tech stocks, AI hype and real‑world asset tokenisation are competing for the same capital. That means altseason could be shorter, more selective and more narrative‑driven than in 2017 or 2021, which places AI tokens and creator economy focus even higher IMO and those with real working products should fare well when we do officially start to run.
You’re Not Too Late, If You’re Patient and Selective
Here’s where many get it wrong. They think because some coins have already doubled, the train has left the station. But alt seasons historically progress in phases, Bitcoin rallies first, Ethereum takes the lead for a bit, large‑cap alts follow, and then small‑cap and meme coins explode. As I have said countless times before, if you ask a guy on Wall Street to show you his portfolio its generally full of degenerate penny stocks. They will come, they always do. According to analysts at EBC, we’re only in early Phase. Even optimistic projections suggest the final frenzy might not arrive until Q4 2025. That gives you time, assuming you’re willing to do the work.
Based on the last 3 runs lasting 8 weeks, 10 weeks and 14 weeks respectively and that the rate cut would or could be the key trigger, I worked out that the price could be baked in from the 10th (a week before the rate cut) and then run for 14 weeks, taking us to 24th of December. Even if the math isn’t perfect, I am not going to try and pick the top, and until something changes, that’s my out date.
This doesn’t mean blindly chasing every new token. The last real altseason way back in 2017, taught us that chasing unsustainable pumps often ends in tears. I have often emphasised, building positions in quality projects before the crowd arrives. That advice holds, focus on altcoins with real utility, strong teams and healthy growing liquidity. Layer-1s, Layer‑2s, decentralised AI projects and real‑world asset platforms are gaining traction. Small caps can still provide outsized returns, but they demand more homework and risk management.
As I am Leaving
You’re wrong about this alt season if you think it’s already over, OR that it will look exactly like past cycles. We are watching the slow rotation that usually heralds a broad alt rally, but the triggers are not all aligned, yet. If this is indeed the last great alt season, as I previously argued, it will test your patience and your conviction. Don’t jump the gun because a couple of metrics flash green, likewise, don’t give up because you think you might not have made any gains yet. Keep your eye on Bitcoin dominance, liquidity conditions, and macro policy. Build your positions thoughtfully. The biggest mistake is believing you’re too early or too late when, in reality, cycles reward those who prepare and adapt.
