Iris Coleman
Oct 08, 2025 13:52
TRX trades at $0.34 after a 2% decline, approaching critical support levels with RSI at 46.8 suggesting potential reversal opportunity for swing traders.
The Setup
TRX price currently sits at $0.34, down 2.03% in the past 24 hours as the token approaches a critical technical juncture. The cryptocurrency is testing the lower boundary of its recent trading range, with immediate support at $0.33 coming into focus.
The current setup presents a compelling risk-reward scenario for swing traders. TRX remains 14.5% above its 200-day moving average at $0.29, indicating the longer-term uptrend remains intact despite recent weakness. With RSI at 46.8, the token sits in neutral territory without being oversold, suggesting room for further downside before reaching traditionally oversold levels.
The risk-reward ratio favors buyers at current levels, with strong support zones nearby and resistance targets offering meaningful upside potential.
Entry Strategy
The primary entry zone sits between $0.33 and $0.335, where previous support levels converge with psychological round numbers. Traders should wait for confirmation signals including a bullish divergence on the RSI or a hammer candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe.
Volume confirmation remains crucial for any reversal attempt. The 24-hour volume of $93 million provides adequate liquidity, but traders should monitor for increased buying pressure on any bounce attempt from the support zone.
An alternative entry strategy involves waiting for a pullback to the $0.30 level, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and represents a more conservative approach with tighter stop-loss placement.
Risk Management
Stop-loss placement should occur below the $0.30 support level, specifically at $0.295 to account for potential false breaks and market volatility. This placement provides a buffer while maintaining the integrity of the longer-term uptrend structure.
Position sizing should reflect the 12-15% potential downside to the stop-loss level. Conservative traders should risk no more than 1-2% of their portfolio on this setup, translating to position sizes that accommodate the wider stop-loss requirement.
Maximum loss per trade should not exceed predetermined risk parameters, with particular attention to TRX’s historical volatility patterns during similar technical setups.
Profit Targets
The first profit target sits at $0.37, representing the next significant resistance level and offering approximately 9% upside from current levels. This target aligns with previous swing highs and provides a reasonable initial reward for the assumed risk.
If momentum continues beyond the first target, the second profit target extends to $0.40, marking a key psychological level and the upper boundary of the recent trading range. This target offers approximately 18% upside potential.
A trailing stop strategy becomes appropriate once TRX price moves above $0.36, allowing traders to capture additional upside while protecting gains if momentum reverses.
The Context
The broader technical picture shows TRX consolidating after a significant rally that brought the token well above its 200-day moving average. The current pullback represents a natural retracement within the larger uptrend structure.
Recent market dynamics have shown decreased volatility in major cryptocurrencies, creating opportunities for swing trades in altcoins like TRX. The absence of significant news events allows technical factors to drive price action, making chart-based strategies more reliable.
The MACD indicator shows a bullish configuration despite recent weakness, suggesting underlying momentum remains positive even as price experiences temporary selling pressure.
Trade Summary
Bullish Scenario: If TRX holds support above $0.33 and shows buying interest, target the $0.37 resistance level with a stop-loss below $0.30. This scenario offers a favorable 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
Bearish Scenario: A decisive break below $0.30 with volume would invalidate the setup and suggest further downside toward the $0.27-$0.28 range, requiring traders to exit positions and reassess.
The setup becomes invalid if TRX/USDT closes below $0.30 on significant volume, indicating a breakdown of the longer-term uptrend structure and requiring a complete reassessment of the technical outlook.
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