The escalation of the conflict with Iran has once again shaken energy markets. Brent crude prices rose above $105 again after president Trump’s evening speech. Since the beginning of March, oil prices have climbed by nearly 50 percent, up from around $72 per barrel in February. While this means higher prices, rising inflation, and falling stock markets for consumers, it represents a goldmine for oil companies.
For oil producers, the current situation is creating conditions for exceptionally high profits, similar to 2022 following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Back then, record earnings were driven by the loss of Russian oil supply due to sanctions imposed by multiple countries.
Companies with minimal exposure to the Middle East are likely to benefit the most from the current situation. In particular, US producers can take advantage of higher prices without facing direct operational risks tied to the conflict. For example, Chevron produced roughly 4 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of last year. Such a sharp increase in oil prices can boost its monthly revenues by several million dollars.
At the same time, rising profits for oil companies are likely to reignite political debates around regulating energy prices. If oil prices remain elevated, calls for a windfall tax could return.
The European Union is already discussing such measures, while countries like Germany and Poland are actively considering introducing a windfall tax. For now, most have limited themselves to partial regulation of fuel prices at gas stations. In contrast, India has already reintroduced a windfall tax on exports of diesel and aviation fuel.
In the United States, some Democrats are also calling for such a tax, although its approval under the current administration remains unlikely. The administration has instead emphasized that oil prices should decline soon and that the US economy benefits from higher prices. The US last introduced a similar tax in the 1980s.
Despite efforts by President Donald Trump to calm the market, the supply shock is unlikely to fade quickly. Producers in the Persian Gulf have already been forced to shut down some oil wells after infrastructure was damaged by drones and missiles. Restoring full production may take several months, while repairing damaged infrastructure could take years.
The current conflict highlights how vulnerable global energy markets are to geopolitical shocks. While oil companies are set to benefit from higher prices in the short term, the long-term outlook will depend primarily on how long the conflict lasts.
