Republicans have a new line of attack against Democratic Alaskan Senate candidate Mary Peltola, but prediction markets have not abandoned her.
A New York Times report last week detailed allegations from former aides that the former Alaska congresswoman berated staff, used offensive slurs and shoved an aide while serving in the House.
Peltola’s campaign disputed several allegations, including a shoving account, and said she struggled with grief after losing her husband and mother in 2023. A Super PAC backing incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is now putting the story into a television ad.
Yet Peltola remains favored to flip his seat. She is trading at 70% on Kalshi, with $1.9 million in volume, and 73% on Polymarket, where just over $1 million has traded. Those prices are below the 74% Kalshi reported shortly after the allegations surfaced, but they still make her a clear market favorite.
A damaging story, but no collapse
The allegations are serious, and Republicans are spending to make sure voters hear them. Last Frontier PAC, which supports Sullivan, is launching an approximately $600,000 broadcast ad buy that draws directly from the reporting about Peltola’s treatment of aides. Her campaign has denied that she engaged in abusive behavior.
The early evidence does not establish that the story has changed many votes. Voters interviewed by The New York Times in Anchorage and Fairbanks expressed disappointment or skepticism, but many said it would not alter their choice. Those interviews are a snapshot, not a poll. Likewise, the current market price shows what traders believe about the election, not how voters assess the allegations.
Republicans have time to test whether the attack lands. They have reserved $45 million in Alaska advertising from August through Election Day, compared with $32 million on the Democratic side, according to figures reported by Axios.
Why Peltola fits Alaska
Peltola is an unusual Democrat for an Alaska race. She is pro-gun, supports oil and gas development, and has made fishing central to her political identity, while also arguing for environmental protections.
She won Alaska’s statewide House seat in 2022 and finished ahead of Sullivan in the state’s nonpartisan Senate primary in August.
That profile gives her room to appeal to independent-minded voters who may not be looking for a national Democratic message. Her argument against Sullivan instead focuses on the cost of living and what federal policy means for a state where shipping, fuel, groceries and health care can be extraordinarily expensive. In Bethel, for example, The Washington Post reported tomatoes nearing $7 a pound and milk costing more than $13 a gallon when available.
The economic frustration creates an opening in a state President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024. But it does not mean the race is safely Democratic. Sullivan is an incumbent in a Republican-leaning state, and the polling remains much closer than the prediction markets suggest.
Markets versus the polls
An AARP survey conducted Sept. 8-11 found Peltola ahead 46% to 41% on voters’ initial choices. After simulating Alaska’s ranked-choice tabulation, it put her ahead 53% to 47%. The poll’s margin of error was 3.5 points.
Other surveys have shown a narrower contest, and Decision Desk HQ’s polling average last week put Peltola ahead by about two points. Its forecast gave her just over a three-in-five chance, favorable, but less confident than Kalshi’s 70% or Polymarket’s 73%.
That gap is the story of the race right now. Traders believe Peltola is more likely than not to survive the staff controversy and defeat Sullivan. The polls say Alaska remains close enough that turnout, second-choice votes and the effectiveness of Republican attacks could still decide it.
A Senate control pickup
Alaska is one of the Republican-held seats Democrats likely need to take control of the Senate. They must hold their own vulnerable seats while gaining four, making a Peltola win potentially as important to their path as pickups in North Carolina, Maine or Ohio.
For Republicans, losing Sullivan would mean surrendering a seat in a state Trump carried comfortably. For Democrats, winning it would show that Peltola’s Alaska-specific appeal can overcome both that partisan lean and a damaging late-campaign story.
Prediction markets bet she can. The next five weeks will show whether Alaska voters agree.
