With the Federal Reserve and Summary of Economic Projections on deck, The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look at the market implications.
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What’s Happening?
At 2:00 p.m. ET today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest interest rate decision. Markets are not expecting a rate change, and right now they are pricing in just one rate cut this year.
More important, though, will be the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections. Released four times a year, it offers an updated view of the committee’s outlook for 2026 and the years ahead across key measures such as employment, growth, and inflation. How markets interpret that outlook could spark a reaction in risk assets like stocks and crypto — a dovish takeaway could boost these assets, while a hawkish view could be bearish.
The other wildcard is Chair Powell, who speaks at 2:30 p.m. ET. Expect potential volatility as the Fed tries to navigate a messy backdrop of stubborn inflation, slowing growth, a stagnating labor market, and a recent spike in oil prices.
⚡ Crypto Corner
Akash Networks — which has done well lately — continues to show off its bullish momentum. At today’s high, AKT was up more than 15% and had doubled off this month’s low. Morpho and API3 are also higher today, while Bitcoin wavers around the key $74K level.
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The Setup — Gold
The largest gold ETF by assets is the GLD ETF, which is up almost 16% this year as of Tuesday’s close. With the Fed on deck, gold could see a sizable move today depending on the outcome. A more dovish tone would likely weaken the dollar and provide a potentially bullish catalyst for gold. However, a more hawkish stance could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, creating a headwind for the metal rather than a tailwind.
Options
As of March 17th, the options with the highest open interest for GLD — meaning the contracts with the largest open positions in the options market — were the September $550 calls, which require a roughly 20% rally to be in the money.
Investors who are bullish could consider calls or call spreads as one way to speculate on further upside, while bearish investors could consider puts or put spreads to speculate on a further move to the downside. For options traders, it may be advantageous to have adequate time until the option’s expiration.
To learn more about options, consider visiting the eToro Academy.
What Wall Street’s Watching
SOFI
Shares of SoFi wavered yesterday, down 1.5% and falling as much as 6.5% at one point after a short report from Muddy Waters. The firm alleges that SoFi had a material misstatement of unrecorded debt, while SoFi said that the report demonstrates “a fundamental lack of understanding of our financial statements and business.” Check out the chart for SOFI.
BABA
Alibaba will be in focus tomorrow morning as the company gears up to report earnings. After an explosive rally to end the third quarter — the stock rallied 57.6% in Q3 — BABA stock has been struggling for traction. Shares are down almost 7% so far in 2026, as bulls look for positive traction. Dig into the fundamentals for BABA.
Disclaimer:
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
