XRP is trading in one of its most important technical zones of the year, with a new two-week chart analysis arguing that the larger Elliott Wave structure has not broken down.
The setup, which was shared by crypto analyst Dark Defender, places XRP near the end of a narrowing resistance and support apex, where the next major move could decide whether the cryptocurrency will still be trapped below short-term resistance or beg a stronger upward rally to defined resistance levels.
XRP’s Elliott Wave Count Still Points To A Larger Bullish Structure
Dark Defender’s analysis is built around the view that XRP’s primary Elliott Wave structure is still intact on the two-week candlestick timeframe chart. The chart shows XRP moving through a larger five-wave sequence, with the current price action around the end of Wave 4.
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According to Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 is the second corrective phase in a five-wave impulse that comes before the final Wave 5 expansion, provided the entire impulse structure is not invalidated by a breakdown.
As shown in the chart below, XRP is being squeezed between a descending orange resistance line and a rising blue support line. The XRP price touched the blue support line in March and has created a few bullish 2-week candlesticks since then. The current candlestick touched the descending orange resistance line again, and this shows that XRP is running out of space to continue consolidating.
The analyst highlighted support between $1.36 and $1.31. That range is important because XRP is already trading around $1.36, meaning the price action is testing the lower part of the setup in real time.
A clean hold above this zone would keep the bullish wave count alive, while a loss of the area would discredit the possibility that the current structure is still preparing for a Wave 5 move.
Fibonacci Price Levels To $8
The most important short-term battle is around the orange resistance line. Dark Defender said XRP will break that orange resistance and deliver a strong, strong run through the end of May. Since the rejection at $3.65 in July 2025, XRP has formed lower highs under that descending trendline, which is now around $1.47.
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The projected path on the chart shows XRP breaking above $1.47 and then extending into the higher Fibonacci extensions. The first notable extension is a 161.80% extension at $1.8818. The 361.80% extension, a Fibonacci level associated with extended Wave 3 and Wave 5 completions in strong impulsive structures, maps to $3.5632. It is the 644.40% extension, however, that anchors the full bullish prediction of $8.7822, which is labeled as the Wave 5 target.
Featured image from Sketchfab, chart from Tradingview.com
