Key Takeaways
- U.S.-Iran combat cut Strait of Hormuz transits by nearly 50% to 127 vessels for the week ending July 19.
- Brent crude spiked toward $92 per barrel as Indian Oil Corp. suspended Iraqi oil loadings amid security risks.
- Goldman Sachs warned that prolonged shipping blockades could push Brent crude past $120 per barrel in Q4 2026.
Military Escalation Hits Infrastructure
Brent crude oil surged toward $92 per barrel Tuesday as intense combat between U.S. forces and Iran stretched into its tenth day. The global benchmark Brent briefly touched a peak of $91.63 per barrel before easing to $91.26 as of 5 p.m. EST.
The rally extended across energy markets, with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate rising 2.3% to $84.38 per barrel. WTI has surged more than 20% since hostilities resumed, fueling inflation concerns and dimming expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this year.
The sharp rise in crude comes as clashes surrounding the strategic Strait of Hormuz intensify, overshadowing reports that Washington may back a proposed 10-day ceasefire. Beyond hitting military installations, U.S. warplanes and naval destroyers are said to have targeted key civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power generation facilities. In response, Iranian forces retaliated against energy and civilian infrastructure across neighboring Persian Gulf states.
Maritime trade in the strait—a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies—remains severely disrupted following direct strikes on tankers and commercial cargo ships. Escalating security risks have already begun to fracture physical trade flows, with Indian state refiners, including Indian Oil and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, suspending crude loadings from Iraq.
Despite assurances from the U.S. military that the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz remains open, commercial maritime traffic through the chokepoint has plummeted. Maritime intelligence data reveals that the U.S. naval escort corridor has been virtually abandoned, with ship operators overwhelmingly rerouting traffic through Iran’s northern passage.
Overall weekly transits plunged nearly 50%, dropping from 248 vessels for the week ending July 12 to 127 for the week ending July 19. With daily tanker traffic remaining well below the pre-conflict benchmark of 125 transits per day, market analysts warn that the risk of acute global oil supply shortages—and severe price volatility—is surging.
Goldman Sachs Group reportedly estimates that Persian Gulf crude shipments have collapsed to below 45% of pre-war levels. While the bank’s baseline forecast assumes eventual de-escalation that would bring Brent crude to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter, commodities analysts warned in a research note that persistent navigation restrictions could send Brent past $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter and average $100 per barrel through next year.
The bank emphasized that alternative overland pipelines and Red Sea bypass routes lack sufficient capacity to absorb the massive supply deficit, leaving physical market buffers depleted and driving up prompt crude delivery premiums.
