MSCI Rules Could Drop Strategy From Indexes Nov. 30

Index provider MSCI has adopted eligibility rules that could push Strategy and Metaplanet out of its global equity indexes from Nov. 30, and the question now is how much passive money would actually have to leave the stocks.

MSCI said in its announcement that companies qualifying as non-operating businesses, meaning those whose assets are primarily held for investment rather than used in an operating company, will be ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes. The screen first checks whether a company has substantial operating assets. It then applies five financial ratios covering expenses, cash flow, asset value changes and reliance on outside financing, and failing the asset test plus at least four of the five makes a company ineligible.

Existing constituents generally leave the indexes only if they fail the screen in each of their two most recent annual filing periods. MSCI said buffers on the thresholds and on removal timing will limit turnover, and it may use the most recent interim filing when one is available.

The $2.8 billion question

Analysts at JPMorgan estimated that an MSCI exclusion could trigger about $2.8 billion in outflows from Strategy stock. That figure addressed MSCI’s earlier digital-asset proposal, not the rules adopted Oct. 15, so it does not directly measure the impact of the final methodology.

Strategy argued in August that the hit would be smaller. The company said funds tracking the indexes hold roughly 13 million of its shares, about 3.1% of basic shares outstanding and less than one day’s trading volume. Any selling would come from index-tracking funds adjusting portfolios to match index composition, not from Strategy selling its bitcoin.

Strategy also pushed back on the methodology itself. In a September letter to MSCI it wrote, “If adopted, the proposal would have no meaningful impact on Strategy’s business, but it would profoundly harm MSCI’s reputation as a reliable and neutral index provider.” Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le called MSCI’s approach discriminatory against digital asset treasuries earlier this year.

MSTR closed at $151.29 on Thursday, down about 72% from its record high of $543 in November 2024. The stock fell as much as 4.3% in after-hours trading after the announcement before recovering, and stood down 1.5% in extended trading. Strategy holds 848,250 BTC worth about $69.67 billion as of mid-October. Tokyo-listed Metaplanet closed at 277 yen ($1.75) on Friday, down from a June 2025 peak of 1,930 yen.

Approval of the rules does not by itself remove any company. MSCI will publish the final list of affected companies on Nov. 11.