Key Takeaways
- XRP fell to about $1.08 on Nov. 9, its lowest since August, after sliding from $1.55 in early October.
- Polymarket prices a 49% chance that XRP dips to $1.00 in November, against 6.9% for $0.80.
- A Santiment-tracked $0.99 XRP call resolves on Nov. 19 as profitable wallets keep adding shorts.
The Level Traders Were Waiting For
XRP dropped under $1.10 during Sunday’s marketwide flush, marking the first time since August that XRP had been at these levels. The token is currently trading near $1.08, down about 6.7% over 24 hours, with a market capitalization of roughly $70 billion. The drop came as crypto liquidations topped $1 billion yesterday.
Analyst Casitrades had been waiting for exactly this print, citing $1.10 as a level where the asset’s decline may pause. She, however, added:
Based on that momentum, I think we could see another test of $1.10, potentially even pushing lower. New lows are eyeing $1.00 or the infamous $0.90.
The analyst also warned that BTC appears to have more downside ahead, which could add further pressure.
How XRP Got Here
The slide has been steady as XRP first fell from around $1.55 in early October to near $1.17 by Nov. 7, as open interest dropped 12.36%. A close below $1.2355 on the four-hour chart confirmed the breakdown, leaving resistance at the 21-day and 55-day exponential moving averages of $1.2578 and $1.2703.
The floors have been failing faster than analysts can draw them. Popular chartist Ali Martinez, for example, argued on Sunday that a hold of $1.14 could send XRP back toward $1.30, and the token broke that level within hours.
Demand from the regulated side has offered little help as spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded zero net flows from Nov. 3 to Nov. 6, Bitcoin.com News reported, and October inflows sank to $18.8 million from $121.4 million in September. The funds’ net assets stood at $1.34 billion, or 1.82% of XRP’s market capitalization.
Momentum readings are now stretched, and a 14-day relative strength index (RSI) sits near 28 (with one trader’s chart dipping as low as 24). Anything under the 30 level is treated as oversold by investors.
The long-term view seems to be even harsher given that XRP is about 70% below its $3.66 record from July last year and its market value has shrunk from about $210 billion at that time.
The Bets on $1
Polymarket’s November contract gives XRP 49% odds of dipping to $1.00 by month-end and just 6.9% odds of reaching $0.80. The round number has recent history, as XRP dipped below $1 in mid-August for the first time in nearly two years before rebounding.
There is also a public wager on the table. Santiment has been tracking a call for XRP to reach about $0.99, one that resolves on Nov. 19 and is invalidated by a close above $1.36. From $1.11, the target is about 11% away. Among the most profitable XRP wallets Santiment follows, only one was long as of Nov. 6, while three active shorts had added about 2.1 million XRP since late October.
Larger holders have told a different story, and wallets holding at least 1 million XRP reached 2,147 last week, their highest count of 2026. Lastly, Santiment reported last month that whales controlled 68.5% of the token’s supply.
Ripple’s Good News Keeps Missing the Chart
The sell-off has rolled over some favorable corporate headlines. For starters, Brazil’s central bank now lists Ripple’s local unit as “under review” for a virtual asset license, after a filing made two days before the Oct. 30 deadline. The status is an early step and confers no authorization.
Similarly, when Ripple secured final approval for a national trust bank last month, the token stayed put between $1.29 and $1.31.
