This week, CEX.IO appears behind the mist of Bitcoin’s current fakeout from $19,500 to $18,500 and subsequent pump to $22,600. Within the thirty first version of our Crypto Ecosystem Replace, we focus on the bullish and bearish elements for Bitcoin that might decide its path for the remainder of the yr.
Moreover, we offer an replace on Bitcoin’s dominance and the BNB chain.
Learn alongside for in-depth worth analyses and luxuriate in opinions of correlated markets that can assist you take advantage of knowledgeable choices alongside your crypto journey.
The historic Bitcoin fakeout
Final week, Bitcoin made one of the crucial exceptional fakeouts in current reminiscence.
After breaking down from the rising channel that it adopted for 2 months and from the flat consolidation space between $19,500-$20,5000, virtually everyone was satisfied that Bitcoin would go a lot decrease.
Nonetheless, shopping for quantity adopted on the morning of September 9, pushing the value of Bitcoin from $19,300 to $22,000 in solely 24 hours. What’s extra important right here than the sudden 14% worth improve is the amount. September 9 noticed virtually as a lot shopping for quantity because the March 2020 capitulation.
Regardless of the bearish outlook earlier within the month, this sudden quantity may very well be the harbinger of a development reversal, at the very least within the quick time period. As additional confluence, Bitcoin closed final week on the week’s excessive worth. Closing a excessive timeframe (per week or a month) with out getting rejected at excessive costs is important to sustaining the value momentum.
If a brand new uptrend is beginning, Bitcoin might quickly march to the 2021 bull market assist at $29,000.
Nonetheless, there is a vital caveat: The previous parallel rising channel from July and August now turned to resistance. This resistance is presently at $22,600, which might see Bitcoin having issue surpassing this stage.
If the resistance seems to be adamant and Bitcoin can’t shut this week above $22,600, the current worth motion might find yourself as simply one other fakeout, this time to the upside. Failing to shut the month above $22,600 may very well be harmful for the cryptocurrency market contemplating the S&P 500 worth chart has been displaying lukewarm efficiency these days.
Within the sections under, we’ll focus on each the bullish and bearish elements brewing for Bitcoin and which elements might decide its subsequent main transfer going into This autumn.
Bullish elements
Gorgeous whipsaw
In technical evaluation phrases, a fakeout known as a “whipsaw,” the place the value of an asset briefly breaks up or down from a construction to entice merchants out, earlier than transferring again in the other way shortly after.
After breaking down from the summer time’s rising channel on August 26 (the Jackson Gap assembly), Bitcoin ranged in a good channel between $19,500 and $20,500 for over ten days (circled in yellow within the chart under).
Bitcoin/U.S. Greenback worth chart with 4-hour candles.
Breaking from such tight channels after extended intervals of consolidation usually results in explosive worth actions. When Bitcoin broke down from the channel, the market was typically satisfied of a transfer to at the very least the $17,000 area.
Usually, such a breakdown would have a short-term goal of $17,500. However as you may observe within the chart above, there was a whipsaw at $18,500 and the value simply exploded to over $22,000 in three days.
Weekly bullish engulfing candle
Bitcoin recorded a bullish engulfing candle on the week of September 5, in comparison with the purple candle on the week of August 22. A bullish engulfing candle is taken into account a reversal candle, the place the upper its timeframe, the extra seemingly it may very well be a sign of coming worth actions.
Weekly Bitcoin chart with the bullish engulfing candle.
Huge bounce from the long-term descending line
Bitcoin has been falling alongside a descending development line because the finish of July (circled in purple within the chart under). It touched the road 3 times earlier than with weak bounces each time. Nonetheless, the final contact on September 9 bounced with a ferocious momentum which might gas the drive we have to begin an uptrend, at the very least a short-term one.
Bitcoin worth falling alongside the descending development line since August.
Bullish cross within the weekly stochastic RSI
Stochastic RSI measures the pace and magnitude of an asset’s current worth adjustments to find out overbought and oversold circumstances within the worth of that asset. The values of the indicator can vary between 0 and 100, the place 0 signifies an oversold worth and 100 signifies an overbought worth.
There are two traces within the stochastic RSI indicator – the quick line (blue) and the sluggish line (orange). When the quick line crosses above the sluggish line, it means momentum is build up. Once more, the upper the timeframe of the cross, the extra affect it might have on the upcoming worth motion.
Though Bitcoin’s weekly stochastic RSI made a bearish cross on the week of August 22 (circled in purple within the chart under), the cross turned out to be a fakeout with final week’s bullish cross (circled in yellow). This bullish cross may very well be the precedent of an upcoming uptrend.
Weekly stochastic RSI chart for Bitcoin.
Weekly MACD builds momentum
Shifting common convergence divergence (MACD) is calculated by subtracting the 26-period transferring common (MA) from the 12-period transferring common. MACD triggers a purchase sign when the 26-period MA (the blue line within the chart under) crosses above the 12-period MA (the orange line).
Bitcoin had a bullish weekly MACD cross on the week of August 8 and momentum has been constructing as indicated by the widening distance between the 26-period and 12-period MA.
However, the purple and inexperienced candles on the heart of the MACD chart additionally point out momentum. Rising darkish inexperienced candles are an indication of rising momentum versus shrinking light-green candles.
Weekly MACD chart for Bitcoin.
Bearish elements
Rising channel assist acts as resistance
With the value advance since September 9, Bitcoin has now reached the second of fact – the assist line of the rising channel from July and August. The worth of Bitcoin is presently flirting with this line (as you may observe within the chart under) and the end result of this affair might seemingly decide the following massive transfer for Bitcoin.
The parallel rising channel in yellow and Bitcoin knocking on the door.
Zoomed-in view of the rising channel resistance.
Invalidating the previous assist line and breaking again into the channel might open the gates for a rally to the 2021 bull market assist at $29,000.
Quite the opposite, a rejection on the assist line on a weekly or a month-to-month shut might spell catastrophe for Bitcoin as that has the potential to show right into a bear flag with a goal worth of $12,000.
Potential bear flag formation for Bitcoin with the $12,000 goal.
Quick-term descending resistance
One other main resistance that Bitcoin has to cope with is the descending development resistance from Might’s $32,000 prime. This resistance has just lately intersected with the rising channel’s assist line (see the chart under).
Bitcoin’s double resistance at $22,600.
Having not one however two important resistances on the identical worth stage ($23,000) might make issues more difficult for Bitcoin to interrupt again into the rising channel.
Rising trade balances
An much more regarding growth than the $23,000 double resistance is the current improve in Bitcoin trade balances (boxed in purple within the chart under).
Regardless of the Bitcoin pump from $18,500 to $19,500, extra bitcoins had been moved to exchanges. This creates a divergence with the value improve as a result of when Bitcoin balances on exchanges improve, it’s usually a sign that extra individuals are gearing as much as promote their cash.
Complete Bitcoin steadiness in all exchanges. Supply: Glassnode
While you look left on the chart above, you will note that the final time trade balances spiked in Might, it ended up with Bitcoin’s capitulation in June (the crash from $30,000 to $17,600). Whereas this might simply be a coincidence, it is perhaps clever to regulate this indicator going ahead.
Bitcoin dominance
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization in opposition to the overall cryptocurrency market worth. Thus the next dominance means a stronger Bitcoin and a weaker altcoin market.
On September 9, Bitcoin dominance exploded from its 39% assist when Bitcoin made the whipsaw. This means that cash has began to maneuver out of altcoins and into Bitcoin, and implies that the current worth surge might certainly be a wholesome basis.
So as to add extra confluence, Bitcoin dominance bounced from the multi-year descending assist line for the fourth time. Often, hitting assist traces time and again weakens them, however the sturdy bounce from the road this time might point out the beginning of an enormous uptrend for Bitcoin.
Descending resistance channel on the Bitcoin dominance chart.
Bitcoin dominance chart on the day by day timeframe.
Regardless of all of the hype and pleasure across the Ethereum Merge, ETH holders also needs to take note of Bitcoin dominance. If the current bounce begins a brand new uptrend for the dominance, the Merge might find yourself as simply one other “purchase the rumor, promote the information” occasion.
BNB Chain underneath the radar
Whereas all eyes are on Ethereum, the BNB chain launched its zero-knowledge protocol testnet (zkBNB) to deal with its scaling points and warmth up the layer-1 blockchain wars.
The zkBNB testnet can assist 100 million pockets addresses and course of as much as 10,000 transactions per second. In consequence, the BNB chain is quickly anticipated to supply considerably increased transaction speeds and cost decrease transaction charges.
The way in which zkBNB works is akin to layer-2 chains. It gathers sidechain transactions into one single transaction, which generates a cryptographic proof, normally known as SNARK.
The worth of BNB has been transferring inside a descending wedge since its August 8 excessive. The descending wedge is taken into account a bullish sample because it has statistically led to breakouts the vast majority of the time.
Tune in subsequent week, and each week, for CEX.IO’s newest Crypto Ecosystem Replace. For extra data, head to the Alternate to examine present costs, or cease by CEX.IO College, to develop your crypto information.
