JP Morgan analysts, spearheaded by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have forecasted that the US Securities and Alternate Fee (SEC) will possible be compelled to greenlight a number of spot Bitcoin Alternate-Traded Funds (ETFs). This prediction comes on the heels of Grayscale’s important authorized triumph towards the SEC.
Final week, a federal court docket mandated the SEC to revisit its prior rejection of Grayscale’s bid to transform its BTC Belief (GBTC) into an spot ETF. The court docket’s choice was rooted within the SEC’s “arbitrary and capricious” stance, the place it didn’t elucidate its differential remedy of futures-based ETFs and spot-based Bitcoin ETFs. The court docket emphasised that the SEC’s rejection lacked a stable basis, particularly given the shut correlation between the spot market and the CME futures market.
JP Morgan Predicts Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou remarked in a notice, “The SEC must retroactively withdraw its earlier approval of futures-based Bitcoin ETFs to defend its denial of Grayscale’s proposal. Such a transfer can be very disruptive and embarrassing for the SEC.” He additional added, “Given the circumstances, it seems extra possible that the SEC will approve the pending spot Bitcoin ETF purposes from a number of asset managers, together with Grayscale.”
The SEC’s current announcement to delay selections on spot ETFs from monetary behemoths like BlackRock, Constancy, and Invesco till mid-October has additional fueled speculations. JP Morgan analysts interpret this postponement as a strategic transfer by the SEC to probably approve a number of spot Bitcoin ETF purposes concurrently.
This method wouldn’t solely eradicate any first-mover benefit but additionally foster competitors, which may result in a discount in ETF charges. Panigirtzoglou acknowledged, “it appears extra possible that the SEC can be compelled to approve the spot Bitcoin ETF purposes which might be nonetheless pending from a number of asset managers, together with that from Grayscale.”
Nevertheless, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Whereas the potential approval of spot ETFs within the US is a big milestone, JP Morgan analysts have additionally sounded a notice of warning. They highlighted that spot BTC spot ETFs have been operational in areas like Canada and Europe for some time however haven’t witnessed substantial investor traction. The analysts additional famous, “Outflows from gold ETFs over the previous yr haven’t considerably benefited Bitcoin funds, together with futures ETFs.”
Just a few days in the past, Panigirtzoglou additionally predicted that the present sell-off could also be nearing its finish, as open curiosity in CME BTC futures contracts has declined. He foresees the crypto market bottoming out within the coming weeks and a rebound within the second half of the yr.
At press time, BTC traded at $25,974.
Featured picture from Pymnts.com, chart from TradingView.com
