Bitcoin remains resilient despite recent Trump tariff shock – Bitfinex

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a daily low of $91,341.25 on Feb. 3 due to President Donald Trump’s remarks on tariffs, BTC remains structurally strong, according to the latest edition of the “Bitfinex Alpha” report.

Bitcoin surged at the beginning of the year, gaining over 10% in January and reaching an all-time high of $109,590 on Jan.20, coinciding with Trump’s inauguration. However, the rally was short-lived, and Bitcoin closed January at $102,470 before entering a downward trend in early February. 

Since mid-November, Bitcoin has traded within a 15% range, forming two peaks near $108,000. Historical patterns suggest such ranges typically resolve within 80 days to 90 days, indicating potential for a decisive move in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin has mirrored US equity markets’ reactions to macroeconomic developments. The S&P 500 index (SPX) formed a similar double-top pattern, with peaks occurring around Trump’s inauguration and ahead of the recent US tariff announcements.

On Jan. 31, the US announced a 25% tariff increase on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% increase on goods from China. The SPX reacted by falling 0.5% to close at 6,040.53 as investors assessed potential impacts on corporate earnings and economic stability.

Bitcoin experienced a sharper decline, reflecting its status as a tail-risk asset. After reaching an intraday high of $106,040 on Jan. 31, it fell to $91,657 by Feb. 3. 

This downward pressure continued over the weekend while traditional markets remained closed. The SPX-Bitcoin correlation has strengthened, with Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling Pearson correlation reaching a five-month high of 0.8.

As of press time, Bitcoin has notched in a solid recovery back into six-figure territory to trade at $101,631, based on CryptoSlate data.

Economic implications

Bitfinex analysts estimate that the tariff increases could reduce S&P 500 earnings by 2.8%, raise core inflation by 0.7%, and lower US GDP by 0.4%. The materials and consumer discretionary sectors, particularly companies with North American supply chains, are expected to be most affected.

Despite its macroeconomic sensitivity, Bitcoin has shown resilience in higher timeframes. While broader risk assets have faced corrections, Bitcoin has maintained structural support levels. 

It gained 9.4% in January, while traditional equity markets exhibited a more gradual upward trend.

Following the Republican victory in the November 2024 elections, Bitcoin and equities diverged. The S&P 500 initially declined before rebounding to new highs. Bitcoin, which traded near $67,000 at the time of the election, surged above $100,000 and maintained strength through January.

Although Bitcoin has experienced a recent pullback, it has sustained elevated price levels above key historical resistance. This suggests continued adoption and macro positioning despite short-term volatility.

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