• About
  • Landing Page
  • Buy JNews
SB Crypto Guru News- latest crypto news, NFTs, DEFI, Web3, Metaverse
  • HOME
  • BITCOIN
  • CRYPTO UPDATES
    • GENERAL
    • ALTCOINS
    • ETHEREUM
    • CRYPTO EXCHANGES
    • CRYPTO MINING
  • BLOCKCHAIN
  • NFT
  • DEFI
  • WEB3
  • METAVERSE
  • REGULATIONS
  • SCAM ALERT
  • ANALYSIS
No Result
View All Result
  • HOME
  • BITCOIN
  • CRYPTO UPDATES
    • GENERAL
    • ALTCOINS
    • ETHEREUM
    • CRYPTO EXCHANGES
    • CRYPTO MINING
  • BLOCKCHAIN
  • NFT
  • DEFI
  • WEB3
  • METAVERSE
  • REGULATIONS
  • SCAM ALERT
  • ANALYSIS
No Result
View All Result
SB Crypto Guru News- latest crypto news, NFTs, DEFI, Web3, Metaverse
No Result
View All Result

How the Updated MVRV Z-Score Improves Bitcoin Price Predictions

SB Crypto Guru News by SB Crypto Guru News
January 17, 2025
in Bitcoin
0 0
0
How the Updated MVRV Z-Score Improves Bitcoin Price Predictions


The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has historically been one of the most effective tools for identifying market cycle tops and bottoms in Bitcoin. Today, we’re excited to share an enhancement to this metric that makes it even more insightful for today’s dynamic market conditions.

What Is the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score?

The MVRV Z-Score is derived by analyzing the ratio between Bitcoin’s realized cap (the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin in circulation) and its market cap (current network valuation). By standardizing this ratio using Bitcoin’s price volatility (measured as the standard deviation), the Z-Score highlights periods of overvaluation or undervaluation relative to historical norms.

How the Updated MVRV Z-Score Improves Bitcoin Price Predictions

Figure 1: MVRV Z-Score effectiveness may be reduced due to diminishing volatility.

View Live Chart 🔍

Peaks in the red zone signal overvaluation, suggesting optimal profit-taking opportunities. Bottoms in the green zone indicate undervaluation, often marking strong accumulation opportunities. Historically, this metric has been remarkably accurate in pinpointing major market cycle extremes.

While powerful, the traditional MVRV Z-Score has its limitations. In past cycles, the Z-Score reached values of 9–10 during market tops. However, in the last cycle, the score only reached around 7. This may be due to the rounded double-peak cycle instead of the sharp blow-off top we usually experience. Regardless, there’s the necessity to factor in the evolving market dynamics, with increasing institutional involvement and changing investor behavior.

The Enhanced MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score standardizes the raw MVRV data using Bitcoin’s entire price history, which includes the extreme volatility of its early years. As Bitcoin matures, these early data points may distort its relevance to current market conditions. To address these challenges, we’ve developed the MVRV Z-Score 2YR Rolling. Instead of using Bitcoin’s entire price history, this version calculates volatility based only on the previous two years of data.

Figure 2: MVRV Z-Score 2YR Rolling accounts for reduced market volatility.

View Live Chart 🔍

This approach better accounts for Bitcoin’s growing market cap and shifting dynamics and ensures the metric adapts to more recent trends, offering greater accuracy for contemporary market analysis. It still excels at identifying market cycle tops and bottoms but adapts to modern conditions. In the last cycle, this version captured a higher peak value than the traditional Z-Score, aligning more closely with 2017’s price action. On the downside, it continues to identify strong accumulation zones with high precision.

Raw MVRV Ratio

Another complementary approach involves analyzing the MVRV ratio without standardizing for volatility. By doing so, we can see the previous cycle’s MVRV ratio peaked at 3.96, compared to 4.72 in the cycle before that. These values suggest less deviation, potentially offering a more stable framework for projecting future price targets.

Figure 3: MVRV data can help to forecast potential price targets.

View Live Chart 🔍

Assuming a realized price of $60,000 (factoring in the current projected increase over the next six months) and an MVRV ratio of 3.96, a potential peak price could be close to $240,000. If diminishing returns reduce the ratio to 3.0, the peak price might still reach $180,000.

Conclusion

While the MVRV Z-Score is still one of the most effective tools for timing market cycle peaks and bottoms, we need to be prepared for this metric potentially not reaching similar highs as prior cycles. By adapting this data to better factor in the changing market dynamics of Bitcoin, we can account for reduced volatility as BTC grows.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
Improving The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



Source link

Tags: BitcoinBitcoin NewsCrypto NewsCrypto UpdatesImprovesLatest News on CryptoMVRVpredictionsPriceSB Crypto Guru NewsupdatedZScore
Previous Post

India’s New Blockchain Buzz on Polygon

Next Post

Treat Bitcoin As A Tool, Not A Cult

Next Post
Treat Bitcoin As A Tool, Not A Cult

Treat Bitcoin As A Tool, Not A Cult

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
AI & Immersive Learning: Accelerating Skill Development with AI and XR

AI & Immersive Learning: Accelerating Skill Development with AI and XR

June 4, 2025
How to Get Token Prices with an RPC Node – Moralis Web3

How to Get Token Prices with an RPC Node – Moralis Web3

September 3, 2024
Meta Pumps a Further  Million into Horizon Metaverse

Meta Pumps a Further $50 Million into Horizon Metaverse

February 24, 2025
The Metaverse is Coming Back! – According to Meta

The Metaverse is Coming Back! – According to Meta

February 7, 2025
Samsung Unveils ‘Moohan’ to Compete with Quest, Vision Pro

Samsung Unveils ‘Moohan’ to Compete with Quest, Vision Pro

January 29, 2025
NFT Rarity API – How to Get an NFT’s Rarity Ranking – Moralis Web3

NFT Rarity API – How to Get an NFT’s Rarity Ranking – Moralis Web3

September 6, 2024
Grayscale ETF Faces Indefinite Delay as SEC Reassesses Earlier Approval

Grayscale ETF Faces Indefinite Delay as SEC Reassesses Earlier Approval

0
No Cheap Power for Miners: IMF Blocks Pakistan’s Proposal

No Cheap Power for Miners: IMF Blocks Pakistan’s Proposal

0
Trump seeks to defund Institute of American Indian Arts – The Art Newspaper

Trump seeks to defund Institute of American Indian Arts – The Art Newspaper

0
Revised Elliott Wave Count Reveals When To Sell Bitcoin — It’s Above 0,000

Revised Elliott Wave Count Reveals When To Sell Bitcoin — It’s Above $300,000

0
Bitcoin Price Coiling Up — Is a Surge Past 0K on Deck?

Bitcoin Price Coiling Up — Is a Surge Past $110K on Deck?

0
Can Crypto Perpetuals Challenge This?

Can Crypto Perpetuals Challenge This?

0
Revised Elliott Wave Count Reveals When To Sell Bitcoin — It’s Above 0,000

Revised Elliott Wave Count Reveals When To Sell Bitcoin — It’s Above $300,000

July 4, 2025
Bitcoin Price Coiling Up — Is a Surge Past 0K on Deck?

Bitcoin Price Coiling Up — Is a Surge Past $110K on Deck?

July 4, 2025
Toncoin Walks A Tightrope At .80 As Market Tension Builds

Toncoin Walks A Tightrope At $2.80 As Market Tension Builds

July 3, 2025
Summer Curtailments Slash Bitcoin Production for US Miners Amid Grid Pressures

Summer Curtailments Slash Bitcoin Production for US Miners Amid Grid Pressures

July 3, 2025
Trump seeks to defund Institute of American Indian Arts – The Art Newspaper

Trump seeks to defund Institute of American Indian Arts – The Art Newspaper

July 3, 2025
Senator Lummis’ New Bill Enables Tax-Exempt Bitcoin Spending — But Thresholds Are Too Low

Senator Lummis’ New Bill Enables Tax-Exempt Bitcoin Spending — But Thresholds Are Too Low

July 3, 2025
SB Crypto Guru News- latest crypto news, NFTs, DEFI, Web3, Metaverse

Find the latest Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, crypto, Business, Fintech News, interviews, and price analysis at SB Crypto Guru News.

CATEGORIES

  • Altcoin
  • Analysis
  • Bitcoin
  • Blockchain
  • Crypto Exchanges
  • Crypto Updates
  • DeFi
  • Ethereum
  • Metaverse
  • Mining
  • NFT
  • Regulations
  • Scam Alert
  • Uncategorized
  • Web3

SITE MAP

  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • DMCA
  • Cookie Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Contact us
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • DMCA
  • Cookie Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Contact us

© 2025 JNews - Premium WordPress news & magazine theme by Jegtheme.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • HOME
  • BITCOIN
  • CRYPTO UPDATES
    • GENERAL
    • ALTCOINS
    • ETHEREUM
    • CRYPTO EXCHANGES
    • CRYPTO MINING
  • BLOCKCHAIN
  • NFT
  • DEFI
  • WEB3
  • METAVERSE
  • REGULATIONS
  • SCAM ALERT
  • ANALYSIS

© 2025 JNews - Premium WordPress news & magazine theme by Jegtheme.