The Daily Breakdown looks at the latest GDP print, which showed an economic contraction for the first time since early 2022.
Thursday’s TLDR
- META & MSFT deliver
- GDP turns negative
- BTC hits multi-month high
What’s Happening?
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Yesterday’s big talking point was the negative Q1 GDP print. However, that discussion seems to be taking a back seat to the big earnings responses from Meta and Microsoft.
Whew!
Bulls needed mega-cap tech to report strong results. Tech has a 30% weighting in the S&P 500 and has been the second-worst performing sector so far this year — about doubling the decline that SPY ETF has seen. Not only are these some of investors’ favorite stocks, but they have huge weightings too.
This is great to see, but it doesn’t ease some of the worries around that negative GDP print, so let’s break that down.
Imports surged in the latest quarter, (which subtracts from US GDP). Imports jumped as businesses positioned themselves ahead of tariffs, trying to avoid unnecessary price increases. Further, after 10 straight quarters of positive contribution to GDP, government spending dipped. Given the Administration’s approach to the federal government via DOGE, this contraction isn’t too surprising.
But outside of the noisy import/export data, business and consumer spending was decent. We’ve heard on corporate conference calls that consumer spending has been a little lumpy, but steady throughout 2025.
This is the big one to know: Personal consumption is more than two-thirds of the GDP report. It showed annualized growth in Q1, but posted its lowest figure in almost two years. Consumers continue to spend, which is good, but falling confidence seems to be holding them back.
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The Setup — Meta
Last night, Meta beat on earnings and revenue expectations and spoke optimistically enough on its conference call to get investors excited. In response, shares are higher by about 5% to 6% in pre-market trading.
Yesterday we looked at some key levels for Microsoft. With it above its 200-day in pre-market trading, it’d be great to see it clear this measure and stay above it in today’s regular session.
Can Meta do the same thing?
When I look at Meta, I see a stock that found support near $480, then cleared downtrend resistance (the blue line) ahead of earnings.
You might notice the price range I added to the right side of the chart, showing what a 6% rally looks like from yesterday’s close. That puts it right near $580, $100 a share off the recent lows, and right into the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Feel free to add some of these measures to your own Meta charts, too.
From here, bulls will want to see META stock charge through these measures and start to use them as support. Bears will hope that these measures are resistance. If Meta does break through them though, a larger rebound could ensue.
Options
For some investors, options could be one alternative to speculate on Meta. Remember, the risk for options buyers is tied to the premium paid for the option — and losing the premium is the full risk.
Bulls can utilize calls or call spreads to speculate on further upside, while bears can use puts or put spreads to speculate on the gains fizzling out and Meta rolling over.
For those looking to learn more about options, consider visiting the eToro Academy.
What Wall Street is Watching
MSFT – Microsoft shares are higher by about 9% in pre-market trading. The company cruised past analysts’ earnings and revenue expectations, and delivered strong cloud results with its Azure unit. What’s more, management spoke favorably about improving operating margins for the year.
BTC – Bitcoin has been holding up well over the past few weeks and continues to inch higher. It’s now at its highest level since February 24th, officially hitting a multi-month high. It’s got some wondering if $100K is next and whether it can elevate other cryptocurrencies, like ETH. Check out the chart for BTC.
Disclaimer:
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
