If you sprint, you’re gonna get tired.
Same goes for the market – it’s been running hard, and now it’s catching its breath.
… But is it just a short water break, or are we looking at a my legs aren’t working anymore type of situation?
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Well, CryptoQuant contributor Gaah pointed out that the IBCI dipped into the Distribution zone.
But! It only reached 80% on the scale.
Everyone who isn’t a nerd reading this:
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Lemme explain:
The IBCI, aka Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators, tells you whether the market is calm, heating up, or close to burning out.
It uses a 0 – 100% scale to track where we are in the Bitcoin cycle:
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0% = market is quiet, early bull phase;
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50% = things are heating up;
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80 – 100% = high risk of a top, lots of hype;
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100% = full euphoria, likely market peak.
So hitting 80% means we’re in a heated zone, but not at full euphoria yet. Past tops didn’t happen until we were right near 100%.
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Two of the main indicators that feed into the IBCI help explain why it’s only at 80%:
1/ STH-SOPR
Full government name: short-term holder spent output profit ratio.
This indicator tracks how quickly short-term traders are taking profits – and it’s still low.
Translation: retail investors aren’t rushing to take profits yet.
2/ Puell Multiple
This one looks at how profitable Bitcoin miners are.
It’s still near its “cheap” zone – even though Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high.
If the market were truly overheated, miner revenue would be way above average by now. So this suggests there’s still room for upside.
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So what does it all mean?
The market is heating up, but the usual signs of peak hype just aren’t here yet.
The IBCI is climbing, but it’s being held up by solid fundamentals – not speculation.
And while there’s definitely more risk now than a few months ago, especially for short-term pullbacks, the indicators suggest we’re not at the end of the cycle.
