The Daily Breakdown: Oil Did What?!

Oil prices surged in overnight trading, nearly hitting $120 a barrel. Can stocks overcome the volatility? The Daily Breakdown drills down.

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What’s Happening?

When I went to bed last night, S&P 500 futures were down more than 2% as crude oil surged 25% to 30%, nearing $120 per barrel. For context, crude ended February at a multi-month high around $62 a barrel.

That overnight spike has cooled a bit, but oil remains sharply higher. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, crude is still up about 12.5%, trading north of $100 a barrel — nearing a 10-year high at current levels. The move has the USO oil ETF surging again this morning.

Worries Permeate

Stocks have climbed off their overnight lows, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still down about 1% this morning. Investors look nervous, not panicked. When geopolitical tensions first escalated, many hoped the fallout would be brief — a matter of days. Now the worry is that this drags on, and that elevated oil becomes an additional headwind.

Higher oil filters quickly into higher fuel costs, pressuring everyone from shipping and logistics firms to airlines and retailers — and ultimately consumers. The big question: can the economy absorb a meaningful jump at the gas pump, too?

Crypto Corner

After a four-day skid, Bitcoin is trying to regain its composure, rallying about 3% this morning. That’s giving a boost to other names too, as Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and others are trading higher too.

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The Setup — Oracle

Oracle briefly touched a $1 trillion market cap at one point, but the stock has been under relentless pressure since then, sliding more than 50% from its record highs in September. Now, bulls are hoping it can find some stability. 

That’s as ORCL stock dips down into the 200-week moving average. As we discussed in our recent Boot Camp, sometimes key moving averages can act as support levels for stocks. If support doesn’t materialize, more selling pressure could weigh on Oracle. It’s also worth noting that Oracle reports earnings after the close on Tuesday.

Options

For options traders, calls or call spreads are one way for investors to speculate on more upside, while puts or put spreads allow them to speculate on further downside or allow bulls to hedge their long positions. 

Using options around big events — like earnings — tend to be more expensive. However, one advantage is that the total risk of the trade is tied to the premium paid when buying options or option spreads. 

For those looking to learn more about options, consider visiting the eToro Academy

What Wall Street’s Watching

HIMS

Shares of Hims & Hers Health are surging this morning, up more than 40% on reports the company may partner with Novo Nordisk to distribute weight-loss drugs through its platform. It would be a meaningful narrative shift, despite their previous legal clash. Dig into the fundamentals for HIMS. 

GOLD

Amid the recent volatility, gold has been surprisingly quiet. Prices fell about 2% last week and are down another 1% this morning. Instead of behaving like a classic safe haven during geopolitical uncertainty, metals have been under pressure — and a firmer US dollar is likely part of the reason. Still, the GLD ETF is up 19.5% so far this year. Check out the charts. 

NIO

Nio is set to report earnings Tuesday before the open. Analysts expect a loss of 5 cents per share on revenue of $4.61 billion. If revenue comes in around expectations, that would imply roughly 61% year-over-year growth. Shares are up about 7% over the past year.

Disclaimer:

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.