Bitcoin’s latest rally has run into a major technical and on-chain resistance zone, with CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno warning that several indicators now point to elevated correction risk after a sharp rebound from April lows.
Moreno said CryptoQuant had been flagging a potential pullback for weeks, citing high unrealized profits, a spike in profit-taking across spot and futures markets, slowing US spot demand, and resistance from both technical and on-chain price levels. The firm’s latest analysis frames Bitcoin’s move toward the 200-day moving average as a critical test for whether the rally has durable support or resembles a bear-market rebound running out of momentum.
Why The Bitcoin Correction Risk Is Rising
“Bitcoin has reached a major bear market resistance level, the 200-day moving average at $82.4K, following a 37% price rally from the April lows. The parallel with March 2022 is direct: in that cycle, Bitcoin also rallied 43% before hitting the 200-day MA, after which the price resumed its downward trend. The current setup raises the question of whether history repeats,” CryptoQuant wrote in its May 13 report, titled “Wall of Resistance: Bitcoin Tests the 200-Day MA as Profit-Taking and Weak US Demand Cap the Rally.”
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The comparison with March 2022 is central to the firm’s caution. In CryptoQuant’s reading, the 200-day moving average is not just a technical line on the chart, but a zone where prior bear-market rallies have failed when supported by weak demand and heavy profit-taking. Bitcoin’s 37% move from April lows has brought the market back to that same kind of inflection point.
A key concern is the rise in unrealized profits among traders. CryptoQuant said traders’ unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June 2025. That matters because holders with sizable paper gains often become more willing to sell into strength, especially when a rally approaches a widely watched resistance level.
The firm said those margin levels mirror the conditions seen in March 2022, when Bitcoin last tested the 200-day moving average before resuming its broader decline. The implication is not that the market must repeat that outcome, but that the current setup carries a similar distribution risk if demand does not strengthen.
Realized profit data suggests that some selling has already begun. CryptoQuant said daily realized profits surged to 14.6K BTC on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. According to the report, spikes of that scale during bear-market rallies have historically preceded local tops, as newly profitable short-term holders accelerate selling into price strength.
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The demand side of the market also remains a weak point in CryptoQuant’s assessment. The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium turned negative in late April and stayed below zero as Bitcoin approached $80,000, which the firm interpreted as a sign of decelerating US investor demand.
CryptoQuant argued that sustained positive Coinbase premium has historically been a prerequisite for more durable Bitcoin rallies, and that its absence suggests the current move lacks broad-based US institutional conviction.
Spot apparent demand has improved, but remains negative. The contraction narrowed from minus 91K BTC in April to minus 11K BTC, according to the report. CryptoQuant said that indicates conditions have become less severe, but not strong enough to confirm sustained spot accumulation. The firm also noted that demand growth appears concentrated more in speculative perpetual futures positioning than in spot buying.
If a correction develops, CryptoQuant identified the main on-chain support level near $70,000, represented by the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price. The firm said this level has historically acted as a resistance-turned-support band in bear markets because it reflects the average cost basis of short-term traders.
At press time, BTC traded at $76,961.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
