Key Takeaways
- Standard Chartered says markets misunderstood Saylor’s bitcoin shift, creating temporary pressure over possible MSTR sales.
- Strategy Inc. is changing bitcoin’s role from accumulation asset toward collateral supporting STRC preferred stock.
- Analyst maintains a $100,000 end-2026 bitcoin forecast, viewing recent MSTR concerns as temporary market noise.
Why Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy Has Created Market Uncertainty
Strategy Inc.’s shift in its bitcoin approach has raised questions about the company’s next phase. Instead of expanding bitcoin reserves through debt and equity issuance, the company is repositioning holdings as collateral for financial products, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, explained on July 10.
The shift centers on Strategy Inc.’s STRC preferred stock, a credit product backed by bitcoin holdings. With MSTR’s market value roughly matching its bitcoin holdings, meaning its mNAV is close to 1.0, the company has less ability to issue equity at a premium to fund additional purchases. This has led investors to question whether it might need to sell BTC, contributing to recent price weakness.
“The communication switch is tricky and has caused pain for bitcoin prices,” he said, adding:
“Once we all understand what Saylor is trying to do the pain will go away. And when that happens bitcoin at USD64K is a screaming buy (targeting USD100K end year) which also means MSTR at USD94 is too, as its mNAV is currently right around 1.0.”
Kendrick argues markets are reacting to uncertainty around Saylor’s strategy. In his view, Strategy Inc. is not abandoning bitcoin ownership but changing how those holdings are used.
As of writing, BTC is trading at $64,322.89, and Strategy’s stock (Nasdaq: MSTR) closed on Friday at $94.64.
The Bitcoin Collateral Question Driving the Market Debate
The key question is whether investors understand that Strategy Inc.’s bitcoin holdings are being repositioned as collateral rather than viewed as holdings that may need to be sold. Kendrick said the company needs to show it can sell bitcoin if required, but believes proving that ability could reduce the need to do so.
“To convince investors the bitcoin is collateral Saylor needs to convince us he can sell bitcoin if needed (as he has done recently),” he noted. “However, once investors understand this is the new purpose of the bitcoin, MSTR won’t need to sell anymore because the communication switch will have gained credibility (this is akin to when central banks say they will ‘do whatever it takes’ and so via credibility they end up needing to do nothing).”
The analysis suggests confidence in the collateral structure could reduce pressure on Strategy Inc. to sell bitcoin. STRC has around $10 billion in notional value outstanding, and Kendrick argues bitcoin backing makes the preferred stock heavily over-collateralized. Stronger confidence could help STRC return toward $100 from around $90.
“We think this signalling will ultimately be effective, limiting the need for future MSTR sales of BTC,” he said, arguing that recent MSTR concerns represent a short-term market reaction rather than a signal of a major bitcoin trend change. He further wrote:
As such, we see this as mostly noise rather than a signal of BTC’s medium-term direction. We therefore maintain our end-2026 forecast of USD- BTC 100,000 for bitcoin.”
Markets Wait for Proof That the New Model Can Work
Strategy Inc.’s next phase depends on whether investors accept its new financial structure. MSTR’s earlier valuation was tied to bitcoin accumulation, while the current model uses holdings to support credit products.
Kendrick believes clearer communication about bitcoin’s role can restore confidence. If investors accept bitcoin as STRC collateral rather than a source of large-scale sales, pressure on bitcoin and MSTR could ease.
The debate now centers on whether markets will recognize the purpose of Strategy Inc.’s bitcoin holdings. Market pricing, STRC performance, and future company actions will determine whether recent volatility was temporary or signals a lasting change in MSTR’s role. Standard Chartered maintains its $100,000 bitcoin forecast by the end of 2026, implying a roughly 56% increase from current levels.
