Key Takeaways
- Kalshi’s $1.70 XRP contract slipped from 36 to 32 cents in 24 hours as XRP is currently hovering near $1.55.
- XRP already cleared Kalshi’s $1.40, $1.50 and $1.60 strikes this month, the last one on Sept. 22.
- Kalshi’s 2026 market lifted $2 XRP odds to 59% from 53%, while September bets settle on Sept. 30.
1.7 on the Screen, 32 on the Ticket
The number came from Kalshi’s September XRP market, which shows a 1.7 forecast, up 0.1 on the day. That said, the contract traders actually buy tells a cooler story, with the “above $1.70” contract last changing hands at 32 cents. Each contract pays $1 if XRP gets there, so 32 cents works out to roughly a one-in-three chance. A day earlier, it traded at 36 cents.
About 46,650 contracts have traded on that strike since the market opened on Sept. 1, and roughly 10,870 remain open. Further up the ladder, the $1.80 line sits at 19 cents, while the $2.00 and $2.10 lines each trade near 7 cents.
Three Strikes Already Cashed
XRP has already done a good share of climbing this month, with Kalshi’s $1.40 strike settling yes on Sept. 3. Subsequently, the $1.50 strike was crossed on Sept. 21 and the $1.60 strike on Sept. 22.
The run, however, started from a hole as XRP slid to roughly $1.26 in mid-September, and the “below $1.30” contract in Kalshi’s companion low-price market paid out on Sept. 15. From there, XRP tagged $1.64 on Sept. 23, its best print of the month, before sliding back toward $1.50.
Holders are still sore, though, and Bitcoin.com News reported recently that XRP’s average long-term trader is still down 11.75% on a 365-day basis, according to Santiment, even after the push above $1.60.
The 9.8% Problem
At $1.55 early Saturday, XRP needs to gain about 9.8% to reach $1.70 before 11:59 p.m. ET on Sept. 30. That kind of move isn’t unusual for XRP, which ran from $1.41 to $1.61 across Sept. 21 and Sept. 22.
The finish line has a catch, though. Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks’ XRP reference rate, using a per-minute average that strips out the top and bottom 20% of prices. A one-minute wick on a single exchange won’t count. XRP has to hold above the level long enough to drag that trimmed average with it.
The backdrop isn’t doing XRP many favors either, as bitcoin’s price is stuck near $84,000 after stalling below $87,000 this week, and XRP’s pullbacks have tracked bitcoin’s. Traders are also watching the $157 million in XRP stolen in the Bitget hack, which sits in wallets nobody can freeze.
The Longer Bet Went the Opposite Direction
While September odds cooled, Kalshi’s full-year XRP market warmed up, with the contract on XRP topping $2.00 in 2026 rising to 59 cents from 53 cents a day earlier. The $2.50 line climbed to 33 cents from 26 cents, and $3.00 moved to 24 cents from 19 cents.
It’s the same split Bitcoin.com News spotted in Kalshi’s bitcoin price markets earlier this week, when year-end $100,000 odds rose as September’s $90,000 odds slipped. In sum, traders seem happier backing a rally by December than one that has to show up in the next five days.
Lastly, fund flows have given the bulls some cover as U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) took in $22.65 million on Sept. 25, led by Bitwise. That’s steady buying, but it hasn’t been enough to push XRP back above $1.60. The next week or so will, therefore, be extremely crucial.
