Key Takeaways
- Trump told Time late last month that Warsh’s Fed shouldn’t have lifted rates to a 3.75%-4% range.
- Bitcoin rose from about $75,600 to $85,950 as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a 2026 high of 5.29%.
- Polymarket gives a 24.5% chance of another 25 basis point hike at the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting.
‘This Just Happened?’
The exchange came during a White House sit-down on Sept. 28 that Time published as a full interview transcript yesterday. When the interviewers noted that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had just overseen a unanimous vote to raise rates, Trump asked, “This just happened?” and then added, “I don’t think they should.”
He did not aim the blame at the man he picked for the job and when asked whether he regretted nominating Warsh, Trump said the chair is “controlled to a certain extent by the board,” further adding:
We have a very hostile board, and the board says, ‘We want to hurt Trump.’ They’re not doing this for you. They’re doing this because they have Trump derangement syndrome.
Trump also pointed to the labor market as proof that the hike was unnecessary, citing “great job numbers, 162,000,” which he said were four times bigger than projected.
The hike itself was not new as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s rate-setting panel, voted 12-0 on Sept. 16 to lift the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%-4%. That was its first increase in more than three years, and the Fed’s policy statement read:
Inflation remains elevated. The Committee will deliver price stability.
The Scoreboard Since Sept. 16
Trump’s complaint lands two weeks after the decision, which makes it possible to check what the hike has actually done to the market thus far:
- Fed funds rate: Up from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4%.
- 10-year Treasury yield: 5.01% at the Sept. 16 close, 5.29% on Sept. 30 and 5.24% on Oct. 1, according to Treasury yield data. The Sept. 30 close was the highest of 2026 and above the 5.26% peak set in June 2007.
- 30-year Treasury yield: 5.35% to 5.64% over the same stretch.
- Bitcoin: The asset was trading at about $75,600 when the decision landed, and around $85,500 at press time.
Borrowing costs have also gone up as long bond yields hit levels not seen in nearly two decades, but bitcoin’s price still gained close to $10,000.
Why Didn’t Bitcoin Flinch?
The textbook view says higher yields should hurt assets that pay no interest, and bitcoin pays none. One reason that playbook failed this time is that traders had weeks to prepare. Warsh flagged tighter policy at Jackson Hole in August, resulting in bitcoin sliding below $78,000 after that speech. By Sept. 16 the move was largely priced in.
Big-bank forecasts have also leaned the other way, with Citi recently setting a $113,000 target for bitcoin and saying it expects $5 billion in crypto exchange-traded fund inflows. Analysts tracking the move now talk openly about $95,000 being back in play.
Trump’s own comments contain a line bitcoin bulls are likely to quote. Talking about the national debt, he said growth would pay it off, then added:
Certain levels of inflation will also pay off that debt very rapidly. Very rapidly.
Inflating the debt away is the scenario many bitcoin holders say the asset was built to hedge against.
Oct. 28 Is the Next Test
The next decision comes at the FOMC’s Oct. 27-28 meeting and in September, 16 of the 18 policymakers projected at least one more quarter-point hike this year, but traders are less convinced it comes this month.
On Polymarket’s October Fed market, “no change” sat at 74.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 24.5% at press time. A separate contract on whether Trump will publicly insult Warsh by Oct. 31 traded at just 7%, a sign that bettors see the president keeping his fire on the board rather than the chair.
That leaves a crowded October for anyone watching the bitcoin price. There is a Fed meeting, a president openly at odds with his own central bank, a 10-year yield still above 5.2%, and a list of macro catalysts that Bitfinex says could move the market before Halloween. So far, bitcoin has shrugged off the first hike. A second one would show whether that holds.
