A better poll, not a clear reversal
The new poll, conducted October 5-6 among 925 likely voters, found Ramaswamy leading Acton 45% to 43%. Another 3% supported a Libertarian candidate, while 8% remained undecided. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.49 percentage points.
That gives Ramaswamy evidence that the race remains competitive. It does not establish that he has overtaken Acton across the polling picture.
A CNN/SSRS survey released the same day showed Acton ahead 50% to 42%. That poll surveyed 760 likely voters from September 29 through October 5, meaning its fieldwork substantially overlapped with the period immediately preceding the survey. The conflicting results are not a clean before-and-after measure of a late Republican surge.
Other recent surveys also favored Acton:
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New York Times/Siena: Acton 49%, Ramaswamy 45%, conducted September 22-October 1.
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YouGov: Acton 48%, Ramaswamy 44%, conducted September 18-30.
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Suffolk University: Acton 50%, Ramaswamy 41%, conducted September 23-27.
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Marist: Acton 50%, Ramaswamy 44%, conducted September 24-27 among registered voters, rather than likely voters.
Decision Desk HQ’s polling average puts Acton ahead by roughly four points while rating the race a toss-up. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball also classify the contest as a toss-up.
The distinction matters. Acton has the stronger recent polling record, but forecasters don’t treat that advantage as a secure Democratic win.
Markets favor a Democratic flip
The two prediction platforms agree on the favorite, but not on how strong her position is.
Kalshi’s price leaves substantial room for a Ramaswamy victory. Polymarket is more confident in Acton, with a 4% gap between the platforms.
Unlike the Kansas Senate race, where traders still favor the Republican despite tied polling, Ohio’s governor markets are backing the Democrat. Here, the tension is not simply between polls and traders. It is between a new Republican-friendly survey, a broader polling record favoring Acton and market prices that continue to give her the edge.
Trump and Vance move to defend Ohio
The campaign visits show how seriously Republicans are taking the state.
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Trump rallied for Ramaswamy outside Dayton last weekend. Vance appeared in Lima on Friday, urging voters to support both Ramaswamy and Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Trump is scheduled to visit Youngstown on Monday to campaign for Husted, who faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
The distinction matters: Monday’s visit focused on the Senate race, but the broader Republican turnout effort could affect both statewide contests.
At the earlier rally, Trump made the turnout message unusually explicit.
“Go out and vote. Even if you hate Jon Husted, even if you hate Vivek Ramaswamy, you’re gonna go out, you’re gonna vote,” he told supporters.
Ohio backed Trump by 11 points in 2024. Yet Republicans now face competitive races for both the governor’s mansion and a Senate seat, with Brown leading in recent CNN and New York Times/Siena surveys.
That makes Ohio another test of whether Trump’s presidential coalition will turn out for Republican candidates when he is not on the ballot, and whether his presence helps mobilize supporters more than it energizes opponents.
Two unconventional candidates
The contest is an open-seat race to replace Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, not a challenge to an incumbent. Neither Acton nor Ramaswamy has held elected office before.
Ramaswamy built his national profile as a biotech entrepreneur and 2024 presidential candidate. He has endorsements from Trump, Vance, and DeWine, and can partially self-fund his campaign.
Acton, a physician, served as Ohio’s health director under DeWine from February 2019 through June 2020 and became a prominent figure during the state’s initial pandemic response. Her campaign has emphasized that experience working with a Republican administration as evidence that she can govern across party lines.
She has also broken with some Democrats on policy, including supporting an amendment that would place Ohio’s existing voter identification requirements in the state constitution. That positioning gives her a different profile from a conventional partisan challenger in a Republican-leaning state.
An Acton victory would be the first Democratic win in an Ohio gubernatorial election since Ted Strickland’s in 2006. Republicans have held the governor’s office since 2010.
The closing contest is about turnout
Acton’s opening extends beyond Democratic voters.
The CNN survey gave her a 27-point advantage among independents and found that she attracted 7% of Republicans, compared with Ramaswamy’s 2% support among Democrats. The same survey found widespread dissatisfaction with the economic effects of Trump’s policies, including 58% saying his tariffs had been bad for Ohio.
Those findings may help explain why a state that comfortably backed Trump could elect a Democratic governor two years later. But polling preferences still have to become votes.
Early voting is underway, and no debate between Acton and Ramaswamy is currently scheduled. That leaves advertising, campaign appearances and voter mobilization as major tools in the final weeks.
Ramaswamy’s new poll gives Republicans a reason to argue the race is closer than Acton’s strongest surveys suggest. The markets already allow for that possibility. But they haven’t made him the favorite, even as Trump and Vance work to deliver the Republican turnout he needs.
