Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin briefly surged to $83,250 on Oct. 20 after recovering from volatile swings below $81,200.
- Data shows short sellers bore about 60% ($45.7 million) of total single-day bitcoin liquidations.
- Analysts warn a drop below $79,821 could push bitcoin to $77,600 before the Oct. 28 FOMC meeting.
Volatile Intraday Bitcoin Swings
In a repeat of the price action seen Monday, bitcoin briefly surged past the $83,000 mark on Oct. 20 as the cryptocurrency appeared to establish support above $81,000. The price surge came even as critics warned of another liquidation flush amid a rebuild of leveraged positions.
Before its sudden burst, 24-hour market data showed bitcoin fluctuating between $81,750 and $82,000 Monday afternoon. Shortly before 8 p.m. EST on Oct. 19, the cryptocurrency tumbled below $81,200 in under two hours. A brief relief rally pushed the price back above $82,000, but bears quickly dragged it back below $81,500.
At around 9:45 a.m. ET on Tuesday, bitcoin kicked off a rally that pushed its price to a daily peak of $83,335 more than an hour later. The surge momentarily saw bitcoin’s market capitalization approach $1.67 trillion and move closer to its month-opening level of over $83,400. By 12:45 p.m. ET, the price of bitcoin had settled near $82,500.
Despite the spike, bitcoin liquidations barely surpassed $76 million—just under $9 million below Monday’s total. However, while Monday’s liquidations were evenly split, short positions accounted for nearly 60%, or $45.7 million, of the total, compared with nearly $31 million in long bets. This pattern was mirrored across the broader crypto market, where short positions made up $171 million of total wipeouts versus over $125 million in long bets.
Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts warned that bitcoin faces the risk of a third liquidation flush this month as leveraged traders rebuild positions despite weak spot demand. The analysts cited a 4.3% rise in futures open interest between Oct. 12 and Oct. 15 amid a bitcoin price declined as evidence that another sell-off could be imminent.
“[Open interest] that has not fallen with price means the fuel for a third flush remains in place—and the trigger will likely be any move below $79,821, forcing further long liquidations and accelerating the decline into the $77,600 to $80,400 accumulation band,” the analysts wrote in a note.
According to analysts, this scenario shows a market where aggregate positioning is increasingly chasing price movements, with shorts entering on declines and leveraged longs returning during rebounds. Such activity does not represent the sustained, spot-led demand needed for a healthy recovery.
Whale Growth vs. Weak Spot Demand
Additionally, new whale entities now account for 33% of total whale realized cap, up from 18% at the start of 2026. Bitfinex analysts argue that while this expansion reflects an early structural recovery, overall net 30-day apparent demand remains slightly negative at approximately -50,000 BTC, indicating that estimated demand has fallen short of available supply over the past month.
Looking ahead, the analysts said they expect $81,300 to act as the center of the weekly range rather than its floor, noting that the bearish path is the more likely of the two.
“Bitcoin has lagged the fall in AI-linked equities, and with a 0.78 20-day correlation to the Nasdaq 100, a further leg down in technology shares would take price through $79,821 into the $77,600 to $80,400 accumulation band before the 28 October FOMC decision,” the analysts wrote.
