Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
Key Takeaways
- Entrepreneurs can make better decisions by gathering sufficient evidence, testing assumptions and managing risks before committing significant resources.
- Reflecting on outcomes and applying lessons learned helps business owners refine their judgment and make more informed decisions over time.
Early in my career, I remember sitting in a doctoral seminar, looking around the room and thinking, “I don’t belong here.” Everyone else seemed sharper, more prepared and more confident. Meanwhile, I was mentally editing every thought before I let it leave my mouth.
Eventually, I realized I had developed a pretty effective system for never embarrassing myself: Don’t say anything until I’m certain I’m right. Unfortunately, it was also an effective system for never growing. So I gave myself a different rule: If I’m not embarrassing myself at least once a day, I’m probably not pushing myself hard enough.
Decades later, after moving into entrepreneurship and venture investing, I’ve turned that lesson into a more disciplined approach. I call it Act, Adjust, Absorb.
Act: Know what ‘enough’ looks like
“Move before you’re ready” is terrible advice if it means ignoring evidence. Leaders need to distinguish between certainty, which is rare, and a sufficient signal, which they can actively look for.
When I began exploring what would eventually become Desert Forge Ventures, an early-stage venture capital fund focused on the Las Vegas ecosystem, I didn’t have every detail figured out. I felt limited in my ability to act, so I did what I’ve learned to do with consequential decisions: I talked to people who understood the opportunity, challenged my assumptions, and looked for evidence that the idea could work. I started by talking with my nephew, who is deeply involved in the Silicon Valley ecosystem. His advice helped me frame and focus the fund, preparing me for the wave of AI startups that was coming. I also spoke with a friend in Tucson who founded venture capital funds focused on the University of Arizona. His advice helped refine the fund’s positioning in Las Vegas. He also shared the legal documents from his first fund, giving me a practical template to work from.
These conversations were instrumental in shaping the fund. The key is not to seek validation for what you already believe, but to ask questions that might prove you wrong. What am I missing? What has to be true for this to work? Where could this fail? At some point, more analysis stops reducing risk and starts postponing action. That’s when leaders need to act.
Adjust: Make the first move small enough to learn from
My first two investments taught me the importance of starting small and remaining flexible.
I launched the fund with a strong interest in deep tech emerging from university labs, and our first two investments fit that thesis perfectly. Both companies, however, wanted fairly substantial lead investments, perhaps more than we were ready to make. I agreed to move forward even though we were still raising the necessary capital, and that put us in a difficult position.
To get out of it, I had to adjust. We accelerated fundraising, recalibrated conversations with investors and became much more deliberate about communicating timelines to both sides. That experience reinforced an important rule: Move early on reversible decisions, but proceed carefully when your decisions create obligations for others.
Today, before making a consequential commitment, I pressure-test it with five questions:
- What assumption am I testing?
- What is the smallest credible move I can make?
- What has to be true for this to work?
- Who becomes dependent on us if I say yes?
- What evidence would cause me to accelerate, change course, or stop?
Absorb: Turn experience into a better system
Leaders often act and adjust but skip the most valuable step: absorbing the lesson. We get busy and move on. But entrepreneurship gets easier when we treat this mindset like a muscle and strengthen it through small, repeated efforts. To put this into practice, set aside time each week to identify one conversation, question, or decision you’ve been avoiding. Address it early, then reflect on three questions:
What did I expect would happen? What actually happened? What did I learn?
My experience with the fund changed how I think about readiness. I no longer ask only, “Am I ready to move?” I also ask whether the people and resources affected by my decision are ready. I distinguish between what I know, what I believe, and what still needs testing. And I deliberately seek out people willing to challenge my thinking.
Experience should give leaders more than confidence. It should give them better filters.
Find your judgment zone
Entrepreneurial advice often encourages people to push beyond their comfort zones. The Act, Adjust, Absorb framework can help you do that, but when applied consistently, it offers something more valuable: a process for comparing the outcomes you fear with what actually happens. Over time, you build evidence. You learn that asking the supposedly stupid question often reveals that others were confused, too. You discover that respectful disagreement rarely leads to the catastrophe you imagined. And you begin to recognize which risks are real and which exist mostly in your head.
Earlier in my career, uncertainty sometimes felt like evidence that I wasn’t ready. Today, I see it as my judgment zone. I’m not fearless, but my decisions are better calibrated. I embrace uncertainty as an opportunity to learn, and while I’m certainly not immune to mistakes, I’m better at learning from them and applying those lessons to my next decision.
That’s the confidence gap leaders need to close. Don’t wait to feel confident before acting. Act when you have sufficient evidence, adjust when reality teaches you something, and absorb the lesson so your next decision is better. If you want more confidence as you contemplate your next move, take heart in Goethe’s words: “Doubt can only be removed by action.”
Key Takeaways
- Entrepreneurs can make better decisions by gathering sufficient evidence, testing assumptions and managing risks before committing significant resources.
- Reflecting on outcomes and applying lessons learned helps business owners refine their judgment and make more informed decisions over time.
Early in my career, I remember sitting in a doctoral seminar, looking around the room and thinking, “I don’t belong here.” Everyone else seemed sharper, more prepared and more confident. Meanwhile, I was mentally editing every thought before I let it leave my mouth.
Eventually, I realized I had developed a pretty effective system for never embarrassing myself: Don’t say anything until I’m certain I’m right. Unfortunately, it was also an effective system for never growing. So I gave myself a different rule: If I’m not embarrassing myself at least once a day, I’m probably not pushing myself hard enough.
Decades later, after moving into entrepreneurship and venture investing, I’ve turned that lesson into a more disciplined approach. I call it Act, Adjust, Absorb.
