Are you already too late to this rally

Not sure if you remember, but last month we talked about PumpFun – the memecoin launchpad that basically invented this cycle’s memecoin narrative – and how they were planning to drop their own token.

(Didn’t read that one? Catch up here.)

Well, it happened on Saturday. And damn.

They raised $500M in their initial coin offering (ICO), and it sold out in just 12 minutes.

The token has a total supply of 1 trillion, with a fully diluted valuation (aka FDV) (aka what the whole thing would be worth if all tokens were already in circulation) at $4 billion.

As for how they split up the supply:

👉 33% sold in the ICO: 18% to institutional buyers, 15% to retail buyers;

👉 24% set aside for future projects and the community;

👉 20% for the team;

👉 13% for early investors;

👉 The rest:

Now, the ICO was obviously wild. But not everyone’s impressed – for several reasons:

1/ The valuation

… is kinda nuts for a platform like that.

Their success depends entirely on people still caring about memecoins. If (or when) the hype dies down, the launchpad doesn’t really have another use.

That’s why $4B seems way over the top.

2/ The distribution

The majority of the tokens are going to the team + insiders + existing investors.

That kind of setup usually scares retail, because insiders can dump on them later.

3/ The competition’s already catching up

LetsBONK, another launchpad, is already beating them on some key metrics.

Which just proves how fragile their lead is – someone with better UX, incentives, or lower fees can easily take market share.

So… can this thing last?

In the short term, probably. They’ve clearly got hype for now + an airdrop coming up to keep people interested.

Long-term? Eh.

If they don’t figure out how to stay relevant when / if the memecoin bubble pops, they’ll be forgotten.

And if that happens, the token will probably be forgotten, too.