This bantamweight fight pairs a fading former champion with one of the sport’s fastest-rising young stars. Figueiredo is 25-7-1, a ranked bantamweight at No. 9, and a former UFC flyweight champion who moved up to 135 pounds in 2023. In his last five fights he has one win, over Montel Jackson, and four losses, to Petr Yan, Cory Sandhagen, Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong. Talbott is 11-1, ranked No. 11, and 28 years old. He enters off a December win over former two-division champion Henry Cejudo. His only UFC loss came against Raoni Barcelos.
Talbott wins by staying on the outside. His quick one-two combination, his speed, and his explosiveness are the tools that give Figueiredo trouble. The key for Talbott is to keep the fight standing. He has said he believes he outstrikes Figueiredo anywhere and that he’ll “turn him into a wrestler”. If Figueiredo shoots, Talbott’s athleticism and balance should let him defend and return to his feet. A scoreboard of clean jabs and counters over three rounds, or a stoppage in the middle rounds, is the most likely outcome if the plan works.
Figueiredo still has real routes to an upset. He is a heavy-handed, seasoned fighter with a history of finishing opponents from both the feet and the ground, and he has said he wants to box with Talbott. His best chance is to close the distance quickly, land the left hook or body shot that has ended fights before, and force Talbott to defend wrestling entries and scrambles. If he can drag the fight into the clinch and eat Talbott’s volume early, a single heavy shot or a late-round surge could turn the fight. The danger for Figueiredo is that his recent losses suggest he can be outworked when he is slower to start.
Talbott’s stoppage routes (44% KO/TKO plus 11% submission) add up to a 55% chance of a finish, against 35% for a decision win. Figueiredo’s total win price of 16% breaks into 5% by KO/TKO, 6% by submission, and 8% by decision, so traders see his path as split among a few outcomes. The sharpest question is the layoff: if Talbott is rusty, the 85% price on him is generous, and Figueiredo’s 6% submission contract becomes the most appealing longshot. If Talbott is sharp, the 44% KO/TKO price still looks realistic.
Prelims and Early Prelims: What to Watch
Before the title fight, the rest of the main card is worth tracking. King Green meets Esteban Ribovics at lightweight, Roberto Soldic faces Khaos Williams at middleweight, and Ateba Gautier takes on Roman Kopylov in another middleweight fight. Those bouts fill out the main card, but the undercard has its own storylines.
The heavyweight fight between Johnny Walker and Mick Parkin stands out. Walker, a former light heavyweight title challenger, is moving up in weight and carries a 22-10 record with a long history of violent finishes. Parkin is 10-1 and has won four of his five UFC fights, so this is a real test of whether Walker’s power translates at the higher weight.
The lightweight veteran matchup between Rafael dos Anjos and Alexander Hernandez is another one to watch. Dos Anjos is 32-17 and a former UFC lightweight champion, while Hernandez is 18-9 and has been a staple of the division for years. Marvin Vettori’s middleweight fight against Ismail Naurdiev is also a good test of an aging contender against a dangerous striker.
If you like prospects, Jacobe Smith is 12-0 and faces promotional newcomer Bruce Whitehead at welterweight. The flyweight fight between Imanol Rodriguez (7-0) and Alden Coria (13-3) is a good measure of whether an unbeaten prospect can handle a more experienced fighter, and Damian Pinas (10-1) against Andrey Pulyaev (10-5) is an interesting middleweight pairing. Heavyweight prospect Anthony Wint (8-0) also meets Lucas Armand (6-0) in his UFC debut, a fight that could end quickly.
Trading on UFC 332 at Polymarket
Prediction markets give traders the flexibility to enter or exit positions before the contract resolves. UFC Fight cards tend to be actively traded. When markets are liquid, you can live trade as it happens based on new developments, whether it be a fight-changing blow or even just a shift in momentum.
Market prices can shift quickly near fight time, so traders should confirm the current contract price, liquidity, and settlement terms before entering any position. The speculative nature of prediction markets means there are no guarantees when trading on outcomes.
